Europe Data Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (Apr.) The uptick in industrial production in April was mostly driven by strong growth in Ireland, with many other major euro-zone economies recording a fall in output. We expect industry to struggle this... 14th June 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Euro-zone recession to drag on The euro-zone has fallen into recession, albeit only by the finest of margins – the economy contracted by 0.1% q/q in both Q4 last year and Q1 this year. The consensus view is that the worst is now... 9th June 2023 · 10 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Employment will not defy gravity forever We learnt this week that the euro-zone fell into recession but Eurostat confirmed that employment rose sharply in Q1. The labour market seems to have remained quite strong in April and May but we... 9th June 2023 · 7 mins read
Global Markets Update Euro-zone bond yields may have already peaked While we anticipate that the ECB will deliver more rate hikes this year, we don’t think that this would trigger another leg up in long-term euro-zone government bond yields. In fact, we suspect that... 8th June 2023 · 5 mins read
ECB Watch At least one, and probably two, more 25bp hikes to go A 25bp interest rate rise next week, taking the deposit rate to 3.5%, looks like a done deal. We think that the ECB will also hint at a likely 25bp increase at the meeting in July and will emphasise... 8th June 2023 · 9 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP (Q1, 2nd est.) News that GDP contracted in Q1 after all means that the euro-zone has already fallen into a technical recession. Given that the impact of policy tightening is yet to fully feed through, we suspect... 8th June 2023 · 2 mins read
Event Drop-In: Unpacking the Fed, ECB and BoE June meetings 1686837600 What will major advanced economy central banks decide at their June meetings, and how will those decisions be messaged?
Europe Economics Update TLTRO redemptions to reduce banks’ liquidity More than €1trn of TLTROs will be redeemed over the next eighteen months, significantly reducing euro-zone banks’ liquidity and pushing up their funding costs as they adjust their balance sheets... 7th June 2023 · 5 mins read
Europe Data Response German Industrial Production (Apr.) The disappointingly small rebound in German industrial production in April suggests that the boost from lower energy prices and improved global supply conditions at the beginning of the year has run... 7th June 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Focus The outlook for euro-zone services inflation We think that lower commodity prices and improved global supply conditions will bring euro-zone services inflation down from 5% in May to about 3.5% by the middle of next year. Further falls seem... 6th June 2023 · 11 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (Apr.) Household consumption seems to have been subdued at the start of the second quarter as retail sales were unchanged in April. And continued low levels of household confidence suggest that consumption... 6th June 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Manufacturing headwinds for German industrial rents Early 2023 data revealed that the German industrial market has slowed considerably following the exuberance of a year ago. And looking ahead the outlook is not much brighter. We were already... 5th June 2023 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Euro-zone inflation falling; Sweden set for recession Data published this week showed that euro-zone core inflation fell for the second consecutive month in May, but it still looks likely that the ECB will raise interest rates again in June and probably... 2nd June 2023 · 12 mins read
Capital Daily EZ downside inflation surprise points to more euro weakness While we suspect that interest rate differentials between the euro-zone and the US might start to put a degree of upward pressure on euro-zone government bond yields and the euro, we think that the... 1st June 2023 · 7 mins read
