Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (May 2023) Euro-zone retail sales remained very weak in May and point to household consumption having fallen in Q2. Further out, low consumer confidence and rising interest rates suggest that household... 6th July 2023 · 1 min read
Event CRE Drop-In: Office sector Armageddon – Who gets hit hardest? 1690383600 The meltdown in CRE that’s dominating headlines is a story centred on the office sector.
Europe Economics Focus Further falls in euro-zone house prices to come House prices in the euro-zone have fallen sharply and further declines seem quite likely. This will weigh on construction activity and household consumption, both of which are already weak, and... 5th July 2023 · 10 mins read
Global Markets Update US corporate bond spreads may rise again Corporate credit spreads have fallen back in the US over the past couple of weeks, while they have risen in the euro-zone and the UK. However, given our pessimistic view of the US economy, we suspect... 5th July 2023 · 4 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone Final PMIs (June 2023) The downward revision to the euro-zone Composite PMI for June, from 50.3 to 49.9, left it consistent with the economy stagnating at best at the end of Q2. Given that the PMI overstated growth in Q1... 5th July 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Outlook Price falls slowing but poor rent outlook to drag on recovery The slowdown in rent growth at the start of this year is likely to persist given the weak economic backdrop. And although the property price correction has slowed, we think stretched valuations will... 3rd July 2023 · 35 mins read
Capital Daily 2023: A year of two halves? “Risky” assets are clearly leading “safe” assets as we approach the halfway point of the year. But with recessions looming, we expect souring risk appetite to turn the game on its head in the second... 30th June 2023 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Higher ECB rate forecast, Riksbank eyes stronger SEK We are nudging up our peak ECB rate forecast in light of communications from ECB officials at Sintra and the latest economic data. We now see 25bp rate hikes in both July and September, taking the... 30th June 2023 · 8 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone HICP (June) June’s inflation data won’t shift the dial at the ECB. While the headline rate is on a steep downward trend, services inflation shows no sign of falling. 30th June 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Germany HICP (June) The increase in German headline and core inflation in June was mainly due to base effects. Euro-zone headline inflation probably still fell but the core rate is likely to have been little changed... 29th June 2023 · 2 mins read
Event Global Drop-In: Is corporate greed to blame for high inflation? 1688652000 Consumer anger is mounting, executives are on the defensive and politicians are scrambling to respond.
Europe Rapid Response EC Survey (Jun.) The EC Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) weakened further in June and is broadly consistent with the economy stagnating at best. We expect the euro-zone’s mild recession to continue for the rest of... 29th June 2023 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Hawkish tone at Sintra forum, particularly in Europe Central bankers have struck a hawkish tone at the ECB’s forum in Sintra this week, suggesting that rates haven’t yet peaked and cuts are not on the cards for some time. But there were some interesting... 28th June 2023 · 4 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Spain HICP (June 2023) The further fall in Spanish HICP inflation will provide some respite for households who have suffered a sharp hit to real household income over the last year. But it will have little sway over ECB... 29th June 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Italy HICP (June 2023) The drop in Italy’s headline and core inflation in June is encouraging. But the euro-zone core rate is unlikely to have declined significantly due to base effects related to the anniversary of the... 28th June 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Money and lending data suggest recession will drag on The effects of tighter monetary policy are very clear in the money and credit data, reinforcing our view that the euro-zone economy will underperform the ECB and consensus forecasts. 28th June 2023 · 2 mins read
