Europe Economics Update Track record suggests EU will be slow to adopt AI Europe benefitted less than the US from information-communications technology between the mid-1990s and mid-2000s because most of the innovative tech firms were based in the US and structural factors... 28th July 2023 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Q2 resilience unlikely to last, but inflation to stay high National data released so far suggest that euro-zone GDP rose in Q2, but with activity surveys very weak in July and the full effect of monetary tightening still to be felt, we continue to expect GDP... 28th July 2023 · 10 mins read
Europe Rapid Response EC Survey (July) The small fall in the EC Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) in July leaves it consistent on past form with output stagnating and suggests that, despite the stronger-than-expected Q2 GDP data reported... 28th July 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Germany GDP (Q2 2023) National data released so far suggest that the euro-zone economy held up better than we had anticipated in Q2, with Germany still the laggard among major economies. We continue to think that monetary... 28th July 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response France and Spain GDP (Q2 2023) The big increases in Q2 GDP in Spain and particularly France suggest that the euro-zone has so far coped with policy tightening much better than feared. However, the France data were flattered by... 28th July 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update ECB definitely maybe close to the peak The ECB’s decision to raise rates by 25bp today and Christine Lagarde’s guidance that another hike was a “decisive maybe” will not have surprised anybody. On balance, we think the Bank will probably... 27th July 2023 · 3 mins read
Europe Rapid Response ECB Policy Announcement (July 2023) As was universally expected, the ECB raised interest rates by a further 25bp today and indicated that further hikes are possible but not certain. At the press conference we expect the main message to... 27th July 2023 · 2 mins read
DM Valuations Monitor Global Markets Valuations Monitor (July 2023) The continued rise in the valuations of “risky” assets relative to “safe” ones mostly seems to reflect growing confidence in the economic outlook. We think that optimism will be disappointed and that... 26th July 2023 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus ECB won’t start cutting rates until H2 2024 Tighter monetary policy has had a big impact on financial conditions in the euro-zone, but we think its effect on activity is still in its early stages. Even if the region falls into a mild recession... 26th July 2023 · 20 mins read
Europe Economics Update Money and lending data point to recession Data released this week show that tighter monetary policy has led to a sharp slowdown in money and lending growth, consistent on past form with falling GDP. Together with the latest business surveys... 26th July 2023 · 3 mins read
Europe Rapid Response German Ifo Business Climate Indicator (July) The bigger-than-expected fall in the German Ifo, together with the drop in the PMIs published yesterday, suggest that the German economy continued to shrink at the start of Q3. We expect the recession... 25th July 2023 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily Euro-zone PMIs, Spanish politics, and bond yields Euro-zone government bond yields have fallen further following the release of disappointing PMIs today. Given our pessimistic view of the economy, we suspect that they will generally end the year a... 24th July 2023 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update Italy may only spend a quarter of EU Recovery Fund Italy has already accumulated so many delays in spending NextGenerationEU money that it will only be able to use a fraction of the funds and any boost to growth is likely to be much smaller than hoped... 24th July 2023 · 6 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (July 2023) July’s euro-zone PMIs are consistent with our non-consensus view that the currency union’s economy will remain in recession. But they also suggest that the labour market will remain tight, keeping... 24th July 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Spain election result The People’s Party won the most seats at yesterday’s general election but, even together with the far-right VOX, they achieved only 169 seats which leaves them seven short of a majority. With the... 24th July 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB to hike again, Spain goes to the polls Data released this week support our view that the euro-zone economy contracted in Q2. Meanwhile, France’s government presented a plan to reduce its budget deficit next year but its plans are likely to... 21st July 2023 · 10 mins read
