Europe Economics Weekly France’s 2025 budget; two-way risk for energy prices Having survived a vote of no confidence earlier in the week, France’s government presented its 2025 budget on Thursday, which highlighted the perilous state of the public finances. Meanwhile, energy... 11th October 2024 · 6 mins read
ECB Watch Quarter-point cuts will keep on coming A 25bp interest rate cut looks nailed on next week, taking the deposit rate down to 3.25%. Christine Lagarde is likely to reiterate that policymakers expect to reduce rates further but avoid... 10th October 2024 · 7 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Rental growth to converge in Spain’s top high streets Prime high street rental growth in Barcelona has outpaced Madrid since late 2022. However, we think rental growth will converge in the coming years as tourism numbers fall back to pre-pandemic levels... 10th October 2024 · 3 mins read
Event Europe Drop-In: What will follow another ECB rate cut? 1729173600 Given the amount of signalling by Governing Council officials, it would be surprising if the ECB didn’t cut rates at its October meeting.
Europe Rapid Response Germany Industrial Production (Aug.) The big increase in German industrial production in August isn’t much reason to celebrate as it was only enough to offset the previous month’s sharp decline. The big picture remains that industrial... 8th October 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (August 2024) Euro-zone retail sales edged up in August but were still below their level in May. The big picture is that overall consumption growth is likely to remain subdued. 7th October 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly France budget needs more than temporary fixes Despite the new French government’s plan to tighten fiscal policy by 2% of GDP next year, the country’s debt dynamics appear no better than they did a few weeks ago. Moreover, the government is... 4th October 2024 · 8 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Europe Chart Pack (Oct. 2024) Economic growth in the euro-zone slowed in Q2 and timelier data suggest that it weakened further in Q3. That, together with the fall in headline inflation below 2% in September, should prompt another... 4th October 2024 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone household saving rate likely to stay high Data published today show that the euro-zone’s household saving rate rose even further in Q2 this year. The increase since late 2022 can be attributed to low consumer confidence and high interest... 4th October 2024 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Focus Headline inflation will be below 2% next year After falling to 1.8% in September, headline inflation in the euro-zone is almost certain to rise in the final few months of 2024. But we think that falling oil and natural gas prices will cause it to... 3rd October 2024 · 13 mins read
Global Commercial Property Chart Pack Global Commercial Property Chartpack (Q3 2024) All-property values have stabilised in the UK but we expect further falls elsewhere, especially in the US. Combined with a weaker office outlook, the US is set to underperform over the next couple of... 2nd October 2024 · 0 mins read
Capital Daily Oil spikes, but not yet a concern for central banks Brent crude oil has jumped by around 4% to ~$74.5pb at the time of writing, following reports that Iran is preparing a ballistic missile strike against Israel. Much remains uncertain. A key issue – if... 1st October 2024 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Update ECB to cut by 25bp at next four meetings We now expect the ECB to cut interest rates by 25bp at each of its next four meetings, taking the deposit rate down from 3.5% currently to 2.5% in March. 1st October 2024 · 3 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone HICP (September 2024) The drop in euro-zone headline inflation below 2% in September should be sufficient to persuade the ECB to cut rates in October, even though services inflation remained high. 1st October 2024 · 2 mins read
