Europe Economics Update Will euro-zone core inflation follow the US down? Core inflation has been falling for around a year in the US and we suspect that it won’t be long before it starts falling in the euro-zone too. However, while core goods inflation in the euro-zone is... 14th August 2023 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Italy’s windfall tax, France’s cruise ship The kerfuffle over the Italian government’s planned windfall bank tax is not likely to have any lasting impact on the economy, not least because PM Giorgia Meloni moved swiftly to limit the damage... 11th August 2023 · 7 mins read
Europe Economics Update Why has the EZ labour market remained so strong? We are unconvinced by Cristine Lagarde’s claim that the recent strength of employment in the euro-zone is due mainly to labour hoarding and shifts in the sectoral composition of employment. Instead... 10th August 2023 · 5 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Will the Olympics boost Paris prime retail rents? While Paris rents have been flat for some time, there are signs that the post-pandemic rebound in tourism is starting to boost high street luxury retail. And the upcoming Paris Olympics in 2024 will... 8th August 2023 · 3 mins read
Europe Rapid Response German Industrial Production (June) German industrial output fell in June and we expect it to decline further in the rest of this year as high interest rates and weakening demand take a toll on production. 7th August 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Minor risk to inflation outlook from extreme weather Extreme weather phenomena in Europe as well as worldwide, including El Niño, could push up food and energy prices. But we think that these only pose a very small upside risk to our inflation forecasts... 4th August 2023 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Euro-zone won’t keep dodging recession There was something for both the bulls and bears in the euro-zone’s Q2 GDP data, but we fall into the latter camp. We have tweaked our GDP forecasts but still think that the economy will slip into a... 4th August 2023 · 7 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (June 2023) Euro-zone retail sales fell in June and we expect them to continue to trend down over the rest of this year as high interest rates take an increasing toll on consumers. 4th August 2023 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Europe Chart Pack (August 2023) This new Chart Pack has been designed to replace our Chart Book in response to client feedback to make our insights more accessible, and with more options to incorporate them into your workflow. Use... 3rd August 2023 · 1 min read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone Final PMIs (Jul.) The final euro-zone PMIs confirmed that economic conditions deteriorated in July, with the Composite index consistent with GDP declining slightly. We continue to expect the euro-zone economy to fall... 3rd August 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response EZ Unemployment (June) The euro-zone labour market remains extremely tight, with the unemployment rate steady at a record low in June. We expect weakness in activity to cause labour market conditions to loosen somewhat in... 1st August 2023 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily EZ bond yields may fall back after one last ECB hike While we suspect that sticky core inflation in the euro-zone will mean “higher for longer” interest rates there, we think that the ECB will eventually deliver more rate cuts than currently priced into... 31st July 2023 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone GDP not as good as it looks The 0.3% rise in euro-zone GDP in Q2 was largely due to a huge increase in Ireland’s GDP and the export of a cruise ship from France. Neither of these is a sustainable source of growth. With more of... 31st July 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone GDP (Q2) and HICP (July) July’s inflation data will have been a disappointment for policymakers as, although headline inflation fell in line with expectations, core inflation was unchanged at 5.5% and services inflation... 31st July 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Italy GDP (Q2 2023) The drop in GDP in Italy in Q2 means euro-zone output probably rose by 0.3% q/q in Q2, and just 0.1% if Ireland is excluded. Italy is no longer outperforming its peers and we think it will experience... 31st July 2023 · 2 mins read
