Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone GDP and Employment (Q2) The downward revision to the euro-zone’s second-quarter GDP data means the economy is now thought to have essentially flat-lined since the fourth quarter of last year. With business surveys having... 7th September 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response German Industrial Production (July) Aggregate German industrial output fell sharply again in July and the fall was even larger if the construction and energy sectors are excluded. We expect production to drop further in the rest of the... 7th September 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Spain and Italy hit harder by ECB rate hikes The higher share of floating rate mortgages in Italy and Spain means that household interest spending in both countries has risen much further than in Germany and France. Interest spending is also set... 6th September 2023 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Why the slump in values feels different this time The latest real estate data suggest that the current drop in capital values in the euro-zone will be as bad as the post-GFC correction. But market sentiment has been less negative this time... 6th September 2023 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update German fiscal policy to remain looser than pre-Covid The German government is unlikely to announce the kind of big stimulus package that some are calling for. However, fiscal policy will remain much more supportive than it was before the pandemic. 6th September 2023 · 4 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (July 2023) Euro-zone retail sales fell in July and, in our view, will keep declining over the rest of the year as the effects of tighter monetary policy continue to feed through to consumers. 6th September 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone Final PMIs (August 2023) The final PMIs published today were revised down from the already-low levels reported in the flash measure two weeks ago. The Services Business Activity PMI slumped compared to July, and although the... 5th September 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Weaker economy, lower inflation Data released this week are consistent with our view that euro-zone core inflation has passed its peak and that the economy will contract in Q3. And July’s euro-zone retail sales and German industrial... 1st September 2023 · 9 mins read
Europe Economics Update Repayment of €2.2trn TLTROs to have little impact The repayment of ECB TLTROs by banks has gone smoothly so far and we expect the rest of the TLTROs to be repaid by the end of 2024 without significantly affecting financial conditions or interest... 31st August 2023 · 4 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Euro-zone crash now expected to match GFC slump While the macro backdrop was broadly unchanged, rents were stronger and yields were higher than expected in Q2, forcing us to re-examine our 2023 real estate view. As a result, we have edged down our... 31st August 2023 · 3 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone HICP (August) The small upside surprise to euro-zone headline inflation in August was entirely due to energy, while the core rate edged down. We don’t think these data will tip the balance of opinion at the ECB... 31st August 2023 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Strong inflation may limit downside for EZ bond yields Stronger-than-expected inflation data from Germany and Spain today add to the uncertainty surrounding the near-term path of ECB policy. On balance, we think that the ECB will raise rates once more in... 30th August 2023 · 4 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Germany and Spain HICP (August) August’s slightly higher-than-expected inflation rates in Germany and Spain mean euro-zone HICP inflation may not fall as far as we had anticipated (data due tomorrow) and marginally raise the chance... 30th August 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Tourist boost to Iberian retail rents has run its course A strong rebound in tourism has bolstered retail rents in Spain and Portugal over recent quarters. However, we think this boom has run its course. Alongside a weak domestic consumer outlook, this... 30th August 2023 · 3 mins read
Europe Rapid Response EC Survey (August) The decline in the euro-zone’s Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) in August leaves it consistent on past form with GDP stagnating at best in Q3. And while the survey suggests that hiring intentions... 30th August 2023 · 2 mins read
Metals Focus Steel prices unlikely to forge ahead Absent major fiscal stimulus in China, global steel demand growth will be weak in the next few months. Accordingly, we forecast price declines in major steel markets towards year-end. Only when... 29th August 2023 · 11 mins read
