Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (Aug.) & Final PMIs (Sep.) The drop in retail sales in August and weakness in the final PMIs for September are consistent with our view that the euro-zone economy will fall into recession in the second half of 2023. 4th October 2023 · 2 mins read
Global Economic Outlook “Higher for longer” won’t survive economic weakness We think that the now popular assumption that interest rates will be held “higher for longer” will prove incorrect as economic growth disappoints and price pressures recede. While recessions have not... 3rd October 2023 · 46 mins read
Europe Economics Update ECB likely to end PEPP reinvestments early We suspect that before the end of the year, the ECB will announce that it will end PEPP reinvestments before the end of 2024. This would allow the ECB to shrink its balance sheet more quickly and... 2nd October 2023 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Assessing the round trip in euro-zone bond markets While concerns about euro-zone public finances put upward pressure on bond yields there, the outlook for inflation will probably remain the focus for investors. In our view, that means bond yields in... 29th September 2023 · 5 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Fair value estimates confirm scope for yield falls Fair value calculations combine valuation analysis with a forward-looking view of rents. As such, these estimates reinforce our existing view that there is scope for declines in euro-zone yields... 29th September 2023 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Bond market sell-off highlights fiscal risks The increase in euro-zone bond yields earlier this week seems to have been mostly a function of shifting global sentiment rather than a response to news from Europe itself. But it is a reminder that... 29th September 2023 · 8 mins read
Europe Economics Update Italy deficit projections: worry but don’t panic The Italian government’s decision to raise its deficit targets suggests it is trying to get away with as little fiscal tightening as possible. With EU fiscal rules set to come back into force next... 29th September 2023 · 3 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone HICP (September) September’s sharp drop in euro-zone inflation was largely due to base effects, but core inflation also came in below expectations. This reinforces our view that the ECB has finished raising interest... 29th September 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response EC Survey (September) The weak outturn for the euro-zone’s EC Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) in September supports our view that the economy will contract in Q3. But the rise in the employment expectations and firms’... 28th September 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Germany State CPI and Spain HICP (Sep.) The big drop in CPI inflation across German states in September all but confirms that German and euro-zone HICP inflation also fell sharply this month. While this mainly reflects base effects related... 28th September 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Economic Outlook ECB to keep policy tight despite weak economy We expect the euro-zone economy to struggle over the next 18 months, and a mild recession in the coming quarters looks more likely than not. Lower energy prices and improved global supply chain... 27th September 2023 · 31 mins read
Europe Economics Update Lending data point to recession The latest euro-zone money and credit data show that tighter ECB policy is continuing to weigh on households’ and firms’ borrowing, as well as influencing what they do with their savings. The weakness... 27th September 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response German Ifo Business Climate Indicator (Sep.) The Ifo Business Climate Index (BCI) confirmed that the German economy remained in the doldrums in September. We continue to expect contractions in GDP in both Q3 and Q4 of this year. 25th September 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Where next for euro-zone yields? The following is a presentation that our Chief Property Economist Andrew Burrell gave to the District Conference in Barcelona on 21st September, 2023. 22nd September 2023 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Rising oil prices won’t cause the ECB to hike rates The increase in oil prices over the past few months will have only a small impact on euro-zone inflation, so it won't alter the outlook for monetary policy. We still expect that the ECB will keep its... 22nd September 2023 · 8 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Sep.) The small increase in the euro-zone Composite PMI in September left it still in contractionary territory. We think a further contraction in activity lies ahead in the remainder of this year. 22nd September 2023 · 2 mins read
