Event Global Drop-In: Is corporate greed to blame for high inflation? 6th July 2023, 3:00PM BST Consumer anger is mounting, executives are on the defensive and politicians are scrambling to respond. The issue of ‘greedflation’ is inflaming the public discourse around inflation – but to what...
Europe Rapid Response EC Survey (Jun.) The EC Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) weakened further in June and is broadly consistent with the economy stagnating at best. We expect the euro-zone’s mild recession to continue for the rest of... 29th June 2023 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Hawkish tone at Sintra forum, particularly in Europe Central bankers have struck a hawkish tone at the ECB’s forum in Sintra this week, suggesting that rates haven’t yet peaked and cuts are not on the cards for some time. But there were some interesting... 29th June 2023 · 4 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Spain HICP (June 2023) The further fall in Spanish HICP inflation will provide some respite for households who have suffered a sharp hit to real household income over the last year. But it will have little sway over ECB... 29th June 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Italy HICP (June 2023) The drop in Italy’s headline and core inflation in June is encouraging. But the euro-zone core rate is unlikely to have declined significantly due to base effects related to the anniversary of the... 28th June 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Money and lending data suggest recession will drag on The effects of tighter monetary policy are very clear in the money and credit data, reinforcing our view that the euro-zone economy will underperform the ECB and consensus forecasts. 28th June 2023 · 2 mins read
Global Economic Outlook Resilience giving way to recession Most advanced economies have so far dodged the recessions that we, and many others, had expected to start in the first half of this year. The relative resilience of activity can be pinned on several... 27th June 2023 · 46 mins read
Europe Economics Update Don’t lose sleep over Bundesbank losses The Bundesbank may make large losses in the coming years but these will be paper losses only, will have no impact on the government’s fiscal position, and are likely to fall over time. While the... 26th June 2023 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Focus Steep falls in euro-zone food inflation to come We expect euro-zone food inflation to fall sharply over the coming year due to the large declines in agricultural and energy commodity prices. But history suggests that the level of food prices rarely... 26th June 2023 · 8 mins read
Europe Rapid Response German Ifo Business Climate Indicator (June) The slump in the German Ifo, together with the drop in the PMIs, released on Friday, suggests that German GDP probably contracted for the third quarter in a row in Q2. We expect the economy to remain... 26th June 2023 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily Weak EZ PMIs point to lower euro and bond yields Lower-than-expected euro-zone PMIs in June support our view that economic activity will disappoint, which we think will push the euro and government bond yields down by the end of 2023. 23rd June 2023 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly More EZ stagflation ahead; hawkish central banks We think the euro-zone will experience a more severe case of stagflation than most expect, and inflation and survey data due next week are likely to support that view. Elsewhere, the SNB and Norges... 23rd June 2023 · 9 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Weakness in both services and manufacturing sectors The fall in the euro-zone flash Composite PMI from 52.8 in May to 50.3 in June left it even lower than our below-consensus forecast. On the face of it, the index still points to a small expansion in... 23rd June 2023 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily Reading the monetary tea leaves for clues on bonds A disparate range of global central banks have delivered their latest policy rate verdicts over the past 24 hours. We think there are four key points for investors to note . 22nd June 2023 · 4 mins read
Europe Economic Outlook Stagflation to drag on, rates near peak We expect the mild recession in the euro-zone to drag on for the rest of the year. The drop-back in energy prices will provide some relief for households and companies but will be partly offset by... 21st June 2023 · 32 mins read
Asset Allocation Update European equities: no AI, no party? Since bottoming out late last year, European and US equities have fared comparably in local-currency terms, and European stocks have even outperformed in dollar terms. Looking ahead, however, we think... 20th June 2023 · 4 mins read
