Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone GDP (2nd est.) & Employment (Q4 2024) The euro-zone economy performed a little better than previously though t in Q4, but growth was still extremely weak and the early signs are that it got off to a slow start to 2025. There is also... 14th February 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update High demand to spur construction in southern Europe Booming demand for housing has led to huge price rises in southern Europe over the past few years and will support rapid construction growth for some time to come. Moreover, there is little risk of a... 13th February 2025 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Implications of an earlier Ukraine peace deal for Europe President Trump’s push for an early peace agreement in Ukraine raises the prospect of higher defence spending in Europe and increases the chance of a fall in European natural gas prices. But it does... 13th February 2025 · 3 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (December 2024) The fall in euro-zone industrial production in December means that the sector contracted again in Q4. Surveys suggest that production will remain subdued in the coming months and we think that the... 13th February 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Could the EU target US services? Any attempt by the EU to impose tariffs on imports of US services would be controversial and difficult to implement. It is more likely that the EU links regulation and domestic taxation of digital... 12th February 2025 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Retail is back, but online will remain a drag into the 2030s Five years ago, the retail sector was staring at the abyss, as lockdowns and virus-related restrictions worsened what was already a crisis in demand. The turnaround since has been dramatic. But while... 12th February 2025 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Update Lack of labour casts shadow over Greek recovery Prospects for Greece’s economy are brighter than for the core euro-zone economies over the next year or two, but a shortage of labour will keep growth lower than in fellow “peripheral” economies... 12th February 2025 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update German election: return of the GroKo? The latest opinion polls suggest that a CDU-SPD coalition is the most likely outcome of the German election. Such a coalition would be less likely to pursue labour market reforms and activist... 11th February 2025 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Euro-zone CRE investment outlook still gloomy After a strong Q4, a shaky start to 2025 has highlighted the fragility of the recovery in euro-zone commercial real estate investment. We still expect transaction volumes to rise over the remainder of... 11th February 2025 · 5 mins read
Equities Update Tariffs, the federal election, and German equities We expect equities in Germany to underperform those in other major developed markets in the coming year or so because German firms are more exposed to the increase in protectionism which appears to be... 11th February 2025 · 4 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Europe Chart Pack (Feb. 2025) We expect the euro-zone economy to grow at only a sluggish pace this year, with southern economies outperforming the core. Germany’s election will lead to only a modest loosening of its restrictive... 10th February 2025 · 1 min read
Event Commodities Drop-In: Trump, tariffs and the commodities markets impact 1739458800 Tariffs on energy suppliers. Tariffs on metals suppliers. A push to end the Ukraine war. A National Energy Emergency. Less than one month in.
Europe Economics Weekly Europe Weekly: Euro-zone wage growth set to ease significantly Despite the focus on r* recently at the ECB, we think that wage inflation will be a more important guide for monetary policy. And the ECB’s wage tracker released earlier this week suggests that wage... 7th February 2025 · 8 mins read
Europe Economics Update Estimates of neutral policy rate won’t tie ECB’s hands Comparing the ECB’s deposit rate to estimates of its equilibrium level suggests that monetary policy will soon be only slightly restrictive. But there is a huge amount of uncertainty around these... 7th February 2025 · 4 mins read
Event Drop-In: German election 2025 – The new government’s domestic and global challenges 1740391200 Will the federal election outcome bring any clarity to Germany’s existential economic and political questions?
Event Drop In: Global Inflation Watch - How US and EU inflation paths are diverging 1739372400 Our latest Global Inflation Watch publication highlights a growing divergence between US and European inflation dynamics and the uncertainties facing the world e
