Europe Commercial Property Update Reviewing our 2023 key calls In another year of upheaval for commercial property in Europe, our forecasts were broadly correct in terms of direction, but underestimated the severity of the downturn. Some, though not all, of this... 4th January 2024 · 3 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone Final PMIs (December 2023) The final Composite PMI for the euro-zone in December was revised up significantly from the flash estimate of 47.0 to 47.6, meaning that it was unchanged compared to the November reading. Nonetheless... 4th January 2024 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily Equities may outshine bond markets in 2024 Both bond and equity markets have started the year on the back foot. But, while a pause after the rapid rally in most asset prices over the last two months of 2023 would not be surprising, we think... 2nd January 2024 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update Increase in bank lending won’t stop ECB from cutting Data released this morning showed that bank lending in the euro-zone picked up towards the end of last year. But we doubt that this is the start of a sustained turnaround. We expect the impact of... 2nd January 2024 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB behind the curve; new EU fiscal rules The latest core inflation data suggest that ECB policymakers will be forced to cut interest rates sooner than they currently think. Meanwhile, the EU has agreed new budget rules, but we suspect that... 21st December 2023 · 7 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Paris the weak link among French logistics markets A relatively resilient economy and tight supply will support French industrial rent growth in the next two years. However, regional markets stand to benefit most. Availability is greater, and rising... 21st December 2023 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Costa resignation won’t reverse Portugal debt progress The end of Portuguese Prime Minister António Costa’s time in office does not signify the end of Portugal’s impressive period of debt reduction. We think any future government is likely to exercise... 20th December 2023 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Focus Debt burdens will constrain fiscal policy for years The goal of keeping government debt ratios stable or falling means that many euro-zone countries will need to tighten fiscal policy substantially and some will need to run primary budget surpluses for... 19th December 2023 · 16 mins read
Europe Economics Update Domestic price pressures are strong but easing Last week, Christine Lagarde cited high wage growth and “domestic inflation” as reasons for the ECB to keep interest rates high. While domestic price pressures are easing, it will take several months... 19th December 2023 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Taking stock of investors’ interest rate expectations Fed officials have pushed back a bit against market bets for rate cuts today, helping to send yields a bit higher. But the bigger picture is that there has been a massive reassessment of the timing... 18th December 2023 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update Your questions after the latest central bank meetings We recently held an online Drop-In session to discuss the December policy meetings and the outlook for monetary policy in the year ahead. (See a recording here.) This Update answers several of the... 18th December 2023 · 5 mins read
Europe Rapid Response German Ifo Survey (Dec.) The renewed decline in the Ifo Business Climate Index (BCI) in December echoes the message from the Composite PMI released last week and unequivocally points to a continued downturn. It looks very... 18th December 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Europe’s central banks push back against rate cut bets In contrast to the Fed, the ECB pushed back this week against expectations that it would start to cut interest rates in early 2024. But we still think that a weak economy and continued declines in... 15th December 2023 · 5 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (December) The drop-back in the euro-zone Composite PMI in December provides more evidence that the economy is in recession as domestic and foreign demand contracts. 15th December 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update ECB holding the line for now The ECB left interest rates on hold today and pushed back against expectations that it will start cutting rates as soon as March next year. However, we think inflation and GDP growth will be lower... 14th December 2023 · 3 mins read
