Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (January 2024) Euro-zone industrial production fell in January and is likely to continue contracting in the coming months due to weak demand. 13th March 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Peak in yields is near, but little scope for compression Improved valuations suggest that the price correction in prime property is almost done. However, with little scope for bond yields in continental Europe to fall from here and property-to-bond yield... 13th March 2024 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update Labour markets starting to support case for rate cuts The latest data from major advanced economies typically show that unemployment rates are rising and pay pressures are easing. While wage growth is still too high for comfort in most cases, we suspect... 12th March 2024 · 6 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Europe Chart Pack (Mar. 2024) The timeliest data support our long-held view that the euro-zone economy will remain close to recession in the first half of the year. Beyond that, we think growth will be much lower than the... 12th March 2024 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Why is euro-zone productivity falling? Productivity in the euro-zone has been falling for well over a year. We think this is largely because it was unsustainably high in mid-2022 as many companies struggled to fill vacancies. Since then... 12th March 2024 · 8 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Wage data point to June cut; worrying demographics Christine Lagarde’s comments following the ECB meeting and the Q4 wage data released this week support our view that the ECB will start cutting rates in June. Meanwhile, news that EU births fell to a... 8th March 2024 · 7 mins read
Global Markets Update There is still room down for bond yields in some DMs Given our view about monetary policy, we expect government bond yields in some developed markets such as the UK to fall markedly this year. In some other places, like the euro-zone, we doubt central... 7th March 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily What might move euro-zone bond yields now? We doubt that ECB policy will have much impact on German bond yields this year and next – if anything, risks are skewed to the upside. But the outlook may be a bit brighter for Italian bonds, and we... 7th March 2024 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Update ECB won't cut rates before June Today’s ECB decision was in line with expectations and President Lagarde’s comments in the press conference reinforce our view that June is the earliest date by which the Bank will start to cut rates. 7th March 2024 · 3 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (January 2024) January’s retail sales data are consistent with our view that the near-term outlook for consumption is poor. 6th March 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Drop back in office completions to support prime rents Completions in Europe are set to increase over the next year or so as construction delays unwind, which will contribute to rising vacancy. However, we expect the upward pressure from supply to ease... 5th March 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Focus Why this will be the slowest global recovery on record Relatively high interest rates and structural problems within offices will weigh on the commercial real estate recovery over the next three years. Indeed, we forecast the upturn will be weaker than in... 4th March 2024 · 21 mins read
Event CRE Drop-In: Unpacking the slowest commercial real estate recovery on record 1710257400 The recovery that we’re forecasting for the US, UK and euro-zone commercial property markets is likely to be the weakest on record.
