Southern growth spurt creates two-speed eurozone economy Andrew Kenningham, chief European economist at Capital Economics, said the output of southern Europe’s four biggest countries was “now more than 5 per cent bigger” than Germany’s. “The ‘peripherals’... 3rd April 2024 · Financial Times
Europe Economics Update Trump tariffs another risk for Europe The cost to the euro-zone of the universal tariff which Donald Trump has proposed, along with other likely spillovers from his trade policies, may result in a hit to the euro-zone economy of up to... 2nd April 2024 · 5 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Germany State CPI (Mar.) The fall in CPI inflation in the major German states in March all but confirms that both German and euro-zone HICP inflation will come in lower than expected in March. This will please ECB... 2nd April 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly European fiscal strains getting worse It was revealed this week that France’s deficit in 2025 was much higher than expected, adding to concerns about Europe’s public finances. While the EU’s fiscal rules do not kick in until 2025, it now... 28th March 2024 · 10 mins read
Global Economic Outlook On course for a soft landing In the quarters ahead, economic activity in most of the world will be characterised by soft landings. We expect GDP growth to be below trend, but meaningful recessions should be avoided and the US... 28th March 2024 · 45 mins read
Europe Economics Update Money and lending growth will remain subdued February’s money and credit data suggest that the effect of tighter monetary policy has eased slightly. But the data are still very weak and we think that rate cuts later in the year will lead to only... 28th March 2024 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update Euro-zone sovereign spreads may have limited scope to fall We expect the spreads between the yield of the 10-year German bund and its ‘riskier’ counterparts in other euro-zone economies to narrow only a little further this year. If anything, we think that the... 27th March 2024 · 5 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Paris prime office rent gains to slow After a solid 2023, we expect Paris prime office rental growth to slow markedly over the next couple of years as demand softens, supply rises and affordability bites. That said, rental gains over 2024... 27th March 2024 · 3 mins read
Europe Rapid Response EC Survey (March 2024) The EC business and consumer survey for March reinforces the message that the economy is close to recession and that, although price pressures in the services sector eased somewhat, they remain... 27th March 2024 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Spanish inflation to remain high in 2024 Data released today showed that Spanish inflation picked up from 2.9% in February to 3.2% in March. We think it is likely to increase further over the coming months due to base effects in energy... 27th March 2024 · 4 mins read
Long Run Focus The fiscal headache of ageing populations One of the key problems for countries with ageing populations is how to tackle the associated fiscal costs. Those countries which have a good record for structural reform and/or scope to raise taxes... 26th March 2024 · 24 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Q1 stagnation, rate cut in June likely but not done deal Christine Lagarde’s comments this week suggest that a first ECB rate cut in June remains most likely but there is a significant risk that the easing cycle will start later. Meanwhile, surveys released... 22nd March 2024 · 6 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Outlook Further value falls to come, but should reach trough in H2 Further near-term yield rises will push property values lower in the coming quarters, but better valuations, falling interest rates and improving economic activity suggest a trough should be reached... 21st March 2024 · 31 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Mar.) The flash PMIs for March suggest that the euro-zone economy is still flatlining, in line with our forecast. Meanwhile, the price components of the surveys suggest that underlying price pressures are... 21st March 2024 · 2 mins read