Europe Rapid Response

Euro-zone Construction Output (March 2024)

Euro-zone construction output rose slightly in March but we think the sector will struggle over the coming months.

21st May 2024 · 2 mins read

Europe Economics Update

An early look at Germany’s next general election

The next German federal election will be crucial in determining how Germany will respond to its structural economic challenges. This Update answers some key questions on what to expect from the...

20th May 2024 · 7 mins read

Central banks will go their own way

Emerging Europe Economics Weekly

Russia’s reshuffle & China ties, lithium-ion batteries

The political reshuffle in Russia this week, in which Putin replaced the defence minister and gave more responsibility to a number of ministers in charge of the economy, suggests a greater focus on...

17th May 2024 · 7 mins read

Europe Economics Weekly

US-China tariffs raise stakes for EU

This week’s decision by the US government to hike tariffs on Chinese EVs to 100% may have been largely political and symbolic but it raises the stakes for Europe, which will complete its own...

17th May 2024 · 8 mins read

Europe Economics Update

Euro-zone services inflation should keep falling

There will be some upward pressure on services inflation in the coming months from tourism-related items and the pass-through of higher oil prices. But we think that this will be more than offset by...

17th May 2024 · 3 mins read

Europe Commercial Property Valuation Monitor

Europe Commercial Property Valuation Monitor (Q2 2024)

Property valuations were little changed in Q1 2024, failing to build upon the considerable improvement in 2023. Property yields increased further, but the smaller rise failed to offset gains in...

16th May 2024 · 0 mins read

Global Economics Update

What the latest US tariffs mean for the global economy

We held an online Drop-In session today to discuss the Biden administration’s new tariffs on goods from China. This Update answers several of the questions that we received about the direct effects of...

15th May 2024 · 6 mins read

Europe Commercial Property Update

Consensus agree prime office rental growth to slow

Forecasts for prime office rental growth have generally proven too pessimistic over the past couple of years, but there is again broad agreement that a slowdown is on the way this year. However, we...

15th May 2024 · 4 mins read

Europe Rapid Response

Euro-zone GDP (Q1, 2nd est.), Employment and Industrial Production

15th May 2024 · 2 mins read

Event

Europe Drop-In: The start of the ECB rate cut cycle?

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We think the ECB’s June meeting will mark the start of a more aggressive rate cutting cycle than markets are currently pricing.

Event

Drop-In: US and Europe to raise China tariffs – A new phase in global fracturing?

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After weeks of rising tensions around the question of Chinese industrial overcapacity, the Biden administration has announced a new raft of tariffs on goods from China.

Europe Economics Weekly

ECB-Fed divergence; new CDU manifesto

The Riksbank joined the club of European central banks that cut rates ahead of the Fed this week. The ECB is almost certain to follow suit in June and we think it would take a very big hawkish shift...

10th May 2024 · 8 mins read

Europe Commercial Property Update

Italian industrial upswing has further to run

The Italian industrial market made a strong start to 2024, with prime rent growth outpacing the rest of the euro-zone and beating our own forecasts. Rental gains are still expected to slow going...

9th May 2024 · 3 mins read

Europe Chart Pack

Europe Chart Pack (May 2024)

The latest data are consistent with our view that the euro-zone will grow only slowly in the coming quarters. With the labour market softening and inflation continuing to fall, the ECB has signalled...

9th May 2024 · 1 min read