Europe Rapid Response Germany GDP (2023) Preliminary data published today show that German GDP contracted in Q4 and we expect it to continue to struggle this year. 15th January 2024 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Household consumption will remain weak this year Household consumption in the euro-zone looks set for another bad year. We think that it will be broadly flat in the first half of 2024, keeping overall GDP growth close to zero for the next few... 12th January 2024 · 10 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Policymakers start the year talking about rate cuts In their first comments of 2024, ECB policymakers acknowledged that the next interest rate move is likely to be a cut, though they emphasised the need for greater certainty on inflation before going... 12th January 2024 · 7 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Europe Chart Pack (Jan. 2024) ECB policymakers still insist that monetary policy will remain tight throughout the first half of the year, if not longer. But we think that weakness in economic activity and lower inflation will... 10th January 2024 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update German industry still has further to fall Industrial output in Germany is likely to follow November’s decline with further falls this year. While the recent fall in natural gas prices could help to stem the bleeding in the near term, energy... 9th January 2024 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update We see 2024 ending much better than it started for asset markets Although bonds and equities have started the year on the back foot, which may continue in the near term, we think they’ll fare better over the year as a whole. We project especially large gains for... 8th January 2024 · 5 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (Nov.) & EC Survey (Dec.) The data published this morning are consistent with our view that euro-zone GDP is more likely to have contracted than expanded in the fourth quarter of last year. They also suggest that while... 8th January 2024 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Weak end to last year does not bode well Data released this week showed that core price pressures in the euro-zone continued to fade at the end of last year as activity remained subdued. This supports our view that a weak economy this year... 5th January 2024 · 9 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone HICP (December) December’s jump in headline inflation in the euro-zone was widely anticipated and entirely due to a base-effects driven increase in energy inflation, so it won’t alter ECB policymakers’ views on the... 5th January 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Our key calls for 2024 Falling interest rates will herald the end of the commercial property downturn in 2024. However, owing to price declines in H1 we still think values will end the year lower. Our forecast for... 5th January 2024 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Reviewing our 2023 key calls In another year of upheaval for commercial property in Europe, our forecasts were broadly correct in terms of direction, but underestimated the severity of the downturn. Some, though not all, of this... 4th January 2024 · 3 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone Final PMIs (December 2023) The final Composite PMI for the euro-zone in December was revised up significantly from the flash estimate of 47.0 to 47.6, meaning that it was unchanged compared to the November reading. Nonetheless... 4th January 2024 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily Equities may outshine bond markets in 2024 Both bond and equity markets have started the year on the back foot. But, while a pause after the rapid rally in most asset prices over the last two months of 2023 would not be surprising, we think... 2nd January 2024 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update Increase in bank lending won’t stop ECB from cutting Data released this morning showed that bank lending in the euro-zone picked up towards the end of last year. But we doubt that this is the start of a sustained turnaround. We expect the impact of... 2nd January 2024 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB behind the curve; new EU fiscal rules The latest core inflation data suggest that ECB policymakers will be forced to cut interest rates sooner than they currently think. Meanwhile, the EU has agreed new budget rules, but we suspect that... 21st December 2023 · 7 mins read
