Europe Economics Weekly

France risk and ”reverse contagion”

It is difficult to know how radical (or reckless) France’s next government will be on fiscal policy, but the risks to France’s public finances have certainly risen since the snap election was called...

14th June 2024 · 5 mins read

Europe Commercial Property Outlook

End of the correction in sight, but outlook remains gloomy

The price correction showed signs of stabilisation in early 2024, but we think further, albeit much smaller, value falls are to come as yields edge a bit higher. Values should bottom by year-end, but...

13th June 2024 · 32 mins read

Europe Rapid Response

Euro-zone Industrial Production (April 2024)

The 0.1% m/m decrease in euro-zone industrial production in April was slightly weaker than the published consensus forecast of 0.2% rise, but expectations will have fallen since Ireland’s data were...

13th June 2024 · 1 min read

FX Markets Focus

The euro could stay lower for longer

Although the EUR/USD exchange rate is not far above multi-decade lows, we think structural factors mean that the euro is close to “fair value” relative to the US dollar and most other major currencies...

12th June 2024 · 14 mins read

Europe Rapid Response

EU duties on Chinese EVs

Reports that the European Commission will “provisionally apply” additional duties of up to 25% on imports of EVs from China from July, on top of the 10% tariff already in place, are in line with...

12th June 2024 · 2 mins read

Europe Economics Update

How radical would Le Pen’s party be in office?

France’s National Rally has advocated policies that would increase the budget deficit and provoke clashes with the EU. During the election campaign, it will probably moderate these views, but the...

11th June 2024 · 3 mins read

Europe Economics Update

Euro-zone export prospects have improved

Sluggish economic growth in the euro-zone’s trading partners and a deterioration in competitiveness caused an extremely rare absolute decline in euro-zone export volumes last year. Poor...

11th June 2024 · 4 mins read

Europe Chart Pack

Europe Chart Pack (June 2024)

The latest data has been a bit stronger than we had anticipated and suggests that the recovery in euro-zone activity may continue at a moderate pace. The labour market remains tight, with unemployment...

10th June 2024 · 1 min read

Capital Daily

Political uncertainty in France unnerves markets

French President Emmanuel Macron’s decision to call for snap elections has triggered a negative reaction in markets, not only in France but also in the rest of the EU. Even though the far-right...

10th June 2024 · 5 mins read

Event

Drop-In: Europe’s shock election results, Macron’s gamble and the economic outlook

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The shock results of Europe’s parliament elections have roiled markets as investors respond harshly to news of President Macron’s surprise decision to dissolve F

Europe Rapid Response

France early election, EU elections

Support for the centrists has held up quite well in European elections but this was overshadowed by the jump in votes for the far-right in France and President Macron’s surprise decision to dissolve...

10th June 2024 · 3 mins read

Europe Economics Focus

EU to move cautiously on China de-risking

In the coming years, we expect Europe to raise barriers to trade and investment with China but to do so in a targeted and gradual manner. If so, there would be big implications for some sectors...

7th June 2024 · 17 mins read

Europe Economics Weekly

Export-led recovery, higher ECB forecast

Data released this week showed that the euro-zone’s recovery in the first quarter was mainly driven by exports, with domestic demand still subdued. Nevertheless, the recent stronger-than-expected...

7th June 2024 · 7 mins read

Capital Daily

Bund yields likely to fall despite today’s hawkish ECB

While euro-zone inflation data has recently surprised to the upside, which was reflected in the hawkish tone of today’s ECB meeting, we still think the 10-year Bund yield will fall faster than the 10...

6th June 2024 · 4 mins read

Europe Economics Update

ECB fires starting gun but rate cuts will be gradual

The ECB began its easing cycle today, as expected, but the accompanying guidance and forecasts suggest that it will proceed cautiously. We now think the Bank will cut interest rates by only a further...

6th June 2024 · 3 mins read