Europe Economics Update

Germany no longer immune to budget trouble

Much of the recent focus has been on France’s political turmoil, but Germany has had its own troubles with disagreement over the 2025 budget threatening the survival of the governing coalition. While...

1st July 2024 · 4 mins read

Europe Rapid Response

Germany Flash HICP (June)

Inflation figures for Germany and other major euro-zone economies suggest that, after rising in May, euro-zone headline and core inflation edged back down in June. But services inflation remained high...

1st July 2024 · 2 mins read

Europe Economics Update

First round results of France’s parliamentary election

The preliminary results of the first round of voting are broadly in line with the final opinion polls, showing that Emmanuel Macron’s centrist coalition has lost out to both the left and right. But a...

30th June 2024 · 3 mins read

Europe Economics Weekly

Three scenarios for after the French election

With France heading to the polls on Sunday for the first round of the legislative election, the latest polls show a small uptick in support for the National Rally (RN) and French bond spreads have...

28th June 2024 · 10 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Weekly

French election spillovers, Turkey’s inflation descent

The first round of the French election taking place this weekend could put further upward pressure on bond yields in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE), particularly if concerns about the direction for...

28th June 2024 · 8 mins read

Europe Rapid Response

France, Italy & Spain HICP (June)

Inflation figures for France, Italy and Spain suggest that euro-zone headline inflation edged down in June, while core and services inflation held broadly steady. This supports our view that the ECB...

28th June 2024 · 2 mins read

Global Economic Outlook

Recovery signs clouded by political uncertainty

The global economy seems to be heading into recovery mode as the adverse effects of the previous surge in inflation subside. Real incomes are recovering in most advanced economies and China is feeling...

27th June 2024 · 46 mins read

FX Markets Update

Assessing French election risk for the euro

The upcoming French election continues to loom over euro-zone financial markets and the euro. We think it would take a worst case scenario in which France’s fiscal outlook worsens materially to...

27th June 2024 · 4 mins read

Europe Rapid Response

EC Survey (June 2024)

The EC business and consumer survey for June is consistent with weak growth in euro-zone GDP and suggests that price pressures continue to ease in manufacturing but remain strong in the services...

27th June 2024 · 2 mins read

Europe Economics Update

Money and lending growth likely to remain slow

May’s data show a continued gradual increase in money and lending growth, though both remain slow. While the ECB’s loosening cycle is now underway, money and lending growth are set to remain subdued.

27th June 2024 · 2 mins read

Europe Commercial Property Update

Benelux prime office rent outperformance to wane

A soft start to 2024 for office demand and weak jobs outlook in Benelux suggest that recent rental outperformance will not last. With supply also rising, we think prime rental growth will slow to...

27th June 2024 · 3 mins read

Europe Commercial Property Update

Munich office rent boom has further to go, Berlin trails

We are generally pessimistic about the rental outlook in Germany, however, this conceals large variance across cities – most notably for offices between leader Munich and laggard Berlin. Munich prime...

25th June 2024 · 3 mins read

Europe Economics Update

How might the ECB respond to a French fiscal crisis?

If the results of France’s election, or actions of the next French government, trigger contagion to other euro-zone countries’ bond markets, the ECB could respond by purchasing their bonds using the...

25th June 2024 · 5 mins read

Europe Economics Update

Q&A on French election: politics, economics, markets

This Update summarises the answers to some of the questions which clients raised in our recent online briefing about the forthcoming French legislative elections. The questions are divided into three...

24th June 2024 · 8 mins read

Europe Rapid Response

Germany Ifo Survey (June 2024)

June’s decline in the Ifo business climate indicator (BCI) to a very low level highlights that even after Germany’s economy grew in Q1, it is far from back to full health.

24th June 2024 · 2 mins read