Europe Economics Update

Olympics no game changer for French economy

Business surveys released this morning add to evidence that the Olympics will lift activity in France slightly in Q3. However, activity is likely to drop back again in Q4 and we still think annual GDP...

24th July 2024 · 4 mins read

Europe Rapid Response

Euro-zone Flash PMIs (July 2024)

The flash PMIs for July suggest that the euro-zone’s recovery may be fizzling out at the start of Q3, while output price pressures eased but remained high in the services sector.

24th July 2024 · 2 mins read

Europe Commercial Property Update

Lending surveys point to weak recovery in transactions

Recent surveys of real estate lenders paint a picture of a European lending market that is still seized up, as loan terms tightened and credit demand fell in H1. Lenders are optimistic that demand for...

23rd July 2024 · 3 mins read

Europe Economics Focus

German debt brake to cause more self-inflicted pain

Fiscal policy has become almost as fraught in Germany as it is in France and Italy, but rather than from a desire to run very loose fiscal policy, Germany’s woes stem from its strict “debt brake”...

23rd July 2024 · 21 mins read

Europe Economics Weekly

Services inflation still sticky, little Olympic cheer

The full breakdown of the euro-zone’s June inflation data suggests that the recent stickiness of services inflation has not just been due to Taylor Swift’s concerts. An ECB rate cut in September still...

19th July 2024 · 5 mins read

Europe Economics Update

Outlook for euro-zone retail sales has improved

After a roller-coaster ride over the past couple of years, we think euro-zone retail sales are likely to rise gradually in the coming quarters. Consumption has recovered a long way following the...

19th July 2024 · 4 mins read

Capital Daily

ECB overshadowed by French politics

Investors’ expectations for ECB rate cuts have not changed much over recent months and today’s meeting did little to change that. Instead, euro-zone assets have been influenced more by French politics...

18th July 2024 · 4 mins read

Europe Economics Update

September cut likely but ECB in no rush after that

Today’s decisions to leave interest rates on hold and give no clear signals about the future path of interest rates were in line with expectations. The overall tone was arguably slightly dovish...

18th July 2024 · 3 mins read

Europe Rapid Response

ECB Policy Announcement (July 2024)

Today’s decisions to leave interest rates on hold and give no clear signals about the future path of interest rates was in line with expectations. A cut in September still seems more likely than not...

18th July 2024 · 2 mins read

Europe Commercial Property Update

UK looking increasingly attractive compared to France

Newfound political stability in the UK contrasts with the now more uncertain political backdrop in France. A better relative outlook for economic growth and risk-free rates had already led to a...

18th July 2024 · 3 mins read

Europe Economics Update

Bank Lending Survey points to recovery in credit

The Bank Lending Survey suggests that there was a pick-up in demand for bank loans in the second quarter particularly for residential mortgages and consumer credit. This is consistent with the...

16th July 2024 · 2 mins read

Europe Rapid Response

Euro-zone Industrial Production (May 2024)

Industrial production in the euro-zone fell again in May and we think the outlook remains poor.

15th July 2024 · 2 mins read

Europe Economics Weekly

France struggling (and not just at football)

France has made little progress towards forming a new government since the second round of the elections last Sunday. But when a new administration is eventually formed, it will struggle to agree a...

12th July 2024 · 5 mins read

Europe Economics Update

High migration to support strong GDP growth in Spain

We think Spain’s economy will grow strongly over the next few years, substantially outperforming the euro-zone. This is partly due to strong domestic demand which has been supported by the rapid...

12th July 2024 · 4 mins read

ECB Watch

Interest rates on hold amid strong price pressures

The ECB is likely to leave the deposit rate on hold at 3.75% next week and refrain from any explicit guidance about the future path of interest rates. The continued strength of wage growth and...

11th July 2024 · 8 mins read