Global Markets Update There is still room down for bond yields in some DMs Given our view about monetary policy, we expect government bond yields in some developed markets such as the UK to fall markedly this year. In some other places, like the euro-zone, we doubt central... 7th March 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily What might move euro-zone bond yields now? We doubt that ECB policy will have much impact on German bond yields this year and next – if anything, risks are skewed to the upside. But the outlook may be a bit brighter for Italian bonds, and we... 7th March 2024 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Update ECB won't cut rates before June Today’s ECB decision was in line with expectations and President Lagarde’s comments in the press conference reinforce our view that June is the earliest date by which the Bank will start to cut rates. 7th March 2024 · 3 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (January 2024) January’s retail sales data are consistent with our view that the near-term outlook for consumption is poor. 6th March 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Drop back in office completions to support prime rents Completions in Europe are set to increase over the next year or so as construction delays unwind, which will contribute to rising vacancy. However, we expect the upward pressure from supply to ease... 5th March 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Focus Why this will be the slowest global recovery on record Relatively high interest rates and structural problems within offices will weigh on the commercial real estate recovery over the next three years. Indeed, we forecast the upturn will be weaker than in... 4th March 2024 · 21 mins read
Event CRE Drop-In: Unpacking the slowest commercial real estate recovery on record 1710257400 The recovery that we’re forecasting for the US, UK and euro-zone commercial property markets is likely to be the weakest on record.
ECB Watch ECB won’t cut rates until June (at the earliest) Next week’s ECB meeting looks set to be a fairly predictable one (famous last words…) in which policymakers leave interest rates unchanged and say they want more evidence that inflation is subsiding... 1st March 2024 · 7 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB patient, SNB eyeing early rate cut This week's data releases will have reinforced the view of ECB policymakers that they should be patient before beginning to loosen monetary policy. Indeed, the monthly pace of services inflation... 1st March 2024 · 7 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Germany not the only source of debt distress in Europe Recent media attention has focused on the downturn in Germany and the travails of its lenders exposed to the crash in property values both domestically and in the US. While the focus on Europe’s... 1st March 2024 · 3 mins read
Asset Allocation Update We think European equities will keep playing catch-up We expect strong returns from European equities in the next couple of years, but we think they will continue to underperform those in the US. 28th February 2024 · 5 mins read
