Europe Economics Weekly Q1 stagnation, rate cut in June likely but not done deal Christine Lagarde’s comments this week suggest that a first ECB rate cut in June remains most likely but there is a significant risk that the easing cycle will start later. Meanwhile, surveys released... 22nd March 2024 · 6 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Outlook Further value falls to come, but should reach trough in H2 Further near-term yield rises will push property values lower in the coming quarters, but better valuations, falling interest rates and improving economic activity suggest a trough should be reached... 21st March 2024 · 31 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Mar.) The flash PMIs for March suggest that the euro-zone economy is still flatlining, in line with our forecast. Meanwhile, the price components of the surveys suggest that underlying price pressures are... 21st March 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Focus Germany will be stuck in the slow lane The recent weakness of Germany’s economy is partly due to temporary factors which should ease this year. However, demographic and structural headwinds, partly driven by global fragmentation, mean the... 19th March 2024 · 21 mins read
Europe Economic Outlook ECB rate cuts will do little to boost growth The euro-zone will remain close to recession until the second half of this year and the subsequent recovery is likely to be weak. Household real incomes will pick up only slowly and consumers will be... 15th March 2024 · 21 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB doesn’t need to wait for the Fed The ECB’s new operational framework, announced this week, doesn’t change the near-term outlook for monetary policy: we still expect the Bank to start cutting interest rates in June. And even though... 15th March 2024 · 6 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Rents rising but a retail renaissance in 2024 is unlikely The revival of prime retail rental growth in 2023 ended a three-year rental decline for the sector. This likely marks the end of retail’s rental woes and we have nudged up our prime rent forecast for... 14th March 2024 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update ECB to maintain a bond portfolio indefinitely The ECB’s new operational framework for implementing monetary policy, announced this afternoon, was largely in line with our expectations and has no immediate implications for monetary policy. But it... 13th March 2024 · 3 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (January 2024) Euro-zone industrial production fell in January and is likely to continue contracting in the coming months due to weak demand. 13th March 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Peak in yields is near, but little scope for compression Improved valuations suggest that the price correction in prime property is almost done. However, with little scope for bond yields in continental Europe to fall from here and property-to-bond yield... 13th March 2024 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update Labour markets starting to support case for rate cuts The latest data from major advanced economies typically show that unemployment rates are rising and pay pressures are easing. While wage growth is still too high for comfort in most cases, we suspect... 12th March 2024 · 6 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Europe Chart Pack (Mar. 2024) The timeliest data support our long-held view that the euro-zone economy will remain close to recession in the first half of the year. Beyond that, we think growth will be much lower than the... 12th March 2024 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Why is euro-zone productivity falling? Productivity in the euro-zone has been falling for well over a year. We think this is largely because it was unsustainably high in mid-2022 as many companies struggled to fill vacancies. Since then... 12th March 2024 · 8 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Wage data point to June cut; worrying demographics Christine Lagarde’s comments following the ECB meeting and the Q4 wage data released this week support our view that the ECB will start cutting rates in June. Meanwhile, news that EU births fell to a... 8th March 2024 · 7 mins read
