Europe Commercial Property Valuation Monitor Europe Commercial Property Valuation Monitor (Q3 2024) Commercial property valuations worsened slightly in Q2 across all sectors as bond yields rose while property yields held steady. However, the decline in government bond yields so far in Q3 means... 20th August 2024 · 0 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly How worrying is German wage inflation? In our view, the concerns which were raised again this week about a wage-price spiral in Germany look overdone. The Indeed tracker suggests that wage pressures have eased since late 2022 and there are... 16th August 2024 · 6 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Data improving, but German retail prospects still weak Despite better occupier data in H1, the weak consumer backdrop and still elevated vacancy mean we expect German retail rents to only hold steady this year. Thereafter, we expect rental gains to lag... 15th August 2024 · 3 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone GDP (Q2, 2nd est.), Employment (Q2) and Industrial Production (June) 14th August 2024 · 2 mins read
Commodities Update History rhyming, but won’t repeat, for EU natural gas Developments in Ukraine have once again emerged as a key driver of EU natural gas prices. But a combination of lower gas use and the sourcing of alternative supplies in Europe means that the situation... 12th August 2024 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Market “turmoil” not a big concern for euro-zone The brief period of turmoil in global markets which continued earlier this week should not have a lasting impact on the euro-zone. Most of the market moves were small and have already been largely... 9th August 2024 · 8 mins read
Europe Economics Update How much damage would Trump tariffs do to Europe? Several organisations have estimated that a universal 10% tariff on US imports, as proposed by Donald Trump, would reduce euro-zone GDP by at least 1%. We think the hit would be much less than 0.5%. 8th August 2024 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Focus ECB rate cuts will do little to boost GDP We suspect that the boost to euro-zone economic growth from interest rate cuts over the next year or two will be quite small. The ECB is likely to lower its policy rates only gradually and leave them... 7th August 2024 · 10 mins read
Europe Economics Update Prospects for German industry remain poor German industrial output rebounded in June and may well expand a bit over the coming year or so. But any recovery will be weak and the sector will remain in structural decline. 7th August 2024 · 4 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Investment turns a corner, but recovery will be uneven The Q2 rise in euro-zone investment marks the start of the recovery, but one that will be weak and uneven across markets. Economic and political concerns means investment in Germany and France is... 7th August 2024 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update No Olympic truce for French and other EZ spreads While the recent financial market meltdown has pushed some euro-zone government bond spreads up, we don’t see good reasons for risk sentiment to remain so downbeat. So we expect the upward pressure on... 6th August 2024 · 4 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Europe Chart Pack (Aug. 2024) The euro-zone data do not scream “rate cut” – the economy is growing at a steady pace and domestic inflation has stabilised at a high level. But we suspect that most ECB policymakers will judge that a... 6th August 2024 · 1 min read
US Commercial Property Update Investment recovering, but not without risks While the UK led the recovery in investment activity in Q4 last year, the latest data suggest the US and euro-zone are now also turning a corner. But given concerns over economic growth in all three... 6th August 2024 · 4 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (June 2024) Retail sales fell in June but we think they will gradually rise over the remainder of the year on the back of strong real household income growth and falling interest rates. 6th August 2024 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Tourism to keep supporting southern outperformance Tourism in the euro-zone is likely to continue growing at a decent pace over the coming quarters due to rising real wages and increased capacity. This will be a particular boon to the southern... 5th August 2024 · 4 mins read
