Europe Commercial Property Outlook Industrial to outperform as muted recovery gets underway After two disappointing years, commercial property values have stabilised. However, the recovery is set to be weak. We think yield falls in the coming years will be small compared to previous... 23rd September 2024 · 28 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB-Fed revisited, France’s new government We do not think the Fed’s 50bp rate cut or the latest euro-zone HICP inflation breakdown will put the ECB off its plans for gradual policy easing. Meanwhile, France looks close to having a new... 20th September 2024 · 7 mins read
Europe Economic Outlook Economy slowing again The euro-zone appears to have lost some momentum and is likely to remain sluggish in the coming quarters. The core economies are the weakest, led by Germany which is probably in another technical... 18th September 2024 · 28 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Focus Regional divide in euro-zone office yield outlook Taking stock of euro-zone office yields after their recent stabilisation reveals a convergence across the region, with spreads between the northern markets and the historically higher-risk southern... 17th September 2024 · 15 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly October cut possible, but December still more likely Post-meeting comments by ECB policymakers suggest that the bar for another rate cut in October is high, with December the most likely option. Meanwhile, the ECB’s new GDP projections still look too... 13th September 2024 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone industry will continue to struggle A large part of the decline in euro-zone industry over recent years shown by the monthly data appears to be due to mismeasurement. Nevertheless, the sector is struggling with a loss of international... 13th September 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily We expect euro-zone yields to bounce back a bit Today’s decision by the ECB to cut the deposit rate by 25bp was widely anticipated, and even the press conference provided little new information. We stand by our view that too much easing is now... 12th September 2024 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update ECB likely to ease policy gradually There was never any doubt that the ECB would cut its deposit rate by 25bp today, to 3.5%. Meanwhile, the policy statement and press conference were largely as expected and do not change our view that... 12th September 2024 · 3 mins read
Europe Rapid Response ECB Policy Announcement (September 2024) There was never any doubt that the ECB would cut its deposit rate by 25bp today, to 3.5%. Otherwise, the policy statement is largely as expected and does not change our view that the ECB will probably... 12th September 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Milan office rent growth to undershoot the euro-zone Milan office take-up has held up well in recent quarters, but this has not translated into stronger prime rental growth. With the outlook for jobs growth pointing to a slowdown in take-up while... 11th September 2024 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Draghi & Letta proposals are no silver bullet In principle, an increase in EU integration and cooperation, as proposed by Enrico Letta in April and Mario Draghi today, could increase output in the long run. But any progress will be slow, and the... 9th September 2024 · 4 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Europe Chart Pack (Sep. 2024) Economic growth in the euro-zone slowed in Q2 and timelier data suggest that it weakened further in Q3. That, together with the further fall in wage growth and headline inflation, all but guarantees... 6th September 2024 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Mr Brexit and France’s €16bn fiscal hole France’s new prime minister, Michel Barnier, will have his work cut out trying to pass a budget that will bring the deficit down to levels acceptable to the European Commission. Meanwhile, the latest... 6th September 2024 · 6 mins read
ECB Watch ECB will keep to steady 25bp cuts The ECB looks certain to cut its deposit rate from 3.75% to 3.5% next week and policymakers will probably signal that they expect to reduce rates only gradually in the coming quarters. President... 6th September 2024 · 8 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Germany Industrial Production (Jul.) The big drop in German industrial production in July adds to the sense that the sector is facing a deep crisis and that, having contracted in Q2, the German economy may fall back into a technical... 6th September 2024 · 2 mins read
