Europe Data Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (Apr.) April’s decline in euro-zone industrial production, together with timelier survey data, suggests that the sector performed poorly in Q2. 13th June 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Tweaking our (already dovish) ECB forecast Mr Draghi’s comments at the ECB’s press conference last week suggest that the Governing Council is gearing up to loosen monetary policy a bit earlier than we had anticipated. We now think it will... 12th June 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB inching towards more QE The measures announced by the ECB today were underwhelming, but policymakers have been considering how to respond to any further economic weakness. All the signs are that they would favour more QE... 6th June 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP (Q1 2019, breakdown) The third estimate of euro-zone GDP in Q1 confirmed that the economy grew at a fairly strong pace, driven mainly by household consumption. But we think that growth will slow in Q2, and with core... 6th June 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Falling inflation expectations increase pressure on ECB Financial market measures of inflation expectations have fallen to levels at which the ECB has loosened policy in the past. Indeed, the ECB’s favoured measure of expectations – the five-year/five-year... 5th June 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (Apr.) & Final PMIs (May) The upward revision to May’s euro-zone PMI leaves it still pointing to GDP growth slowing in Q2. The fall in retail sales in April suggests this is partly due to subdued consumption growth. 5th June 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash HICP (May) & Unemployment (Apr.) The drop in the euro-zone’s headline inflation rate in May was largely due to lower energy inflation and a reversal of Easter timing effects. But with wage growth likely to have peaked, we expect core... 4th June 2019 · 1 min read
ECB Watch Bank to lay the groundwork for further easing Policymakers are likely to make two significant changes at their meeting next Thursday. They will probably announce that they expect to leave rates at present levels until at least mid-2020, rather... 30th May 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Eight quick points about the European elections Projections of the results of the European elections confirm that pro-European parties will continue to have a clear majority in the European Parliament (EP) itself, so little will change at EU level... 27th May 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack Retail yields at an inflection point A further slowdown in the rate of yield compression suggests that investors are increasingly nervous about pricing at this late stage of the cycle. We expect this to continue, especially given the... 24th May 2019 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Divergence in E-Z peripheral bonds likely to continue The yield of 10-year government bonds in Italy has moved in the opposite direction to the yields of 10-year government bonds in Spain and Portugal recently. While we don’t expect that to continue, we... 23rd May 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Account shows ECB divided but dovish The account of the ECB’s latest monetary policy meeting confirms that policymakers were concerned about downside risks to economic activity and, particularly, inflation. This reinforces our view that... 23rd May 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (May.) The flash PMIs for the euro-zone continued to disappoint in May and suggest that the economic growth dropped back again in the second quarter. And with the Ifo Business Climate Index having fallen to... 23rd May 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Falling inflation expectations another worry for ECB The recent fall in financial market measures of inflation expectations may be a bit misleading, and is not matched by a comparable fall in households’ inflation expectations. But it is nonetheless... 22nd May 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Bunds rally amid trade tensions and Italian fiscal risks Developments this week suggest that Italy’s government is on another collision course with the European Commission. Meanwhile, the risk of US car tariffs has eased, but it has not disappeared. Finally... 17th May 2019 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Tariffs remain a big risk for the DAX Although equities in the euro-zone have fallen sharply in the past week as the US-China trade dispute has flared up again, they are still much higher than they were at the start of the year. This... 15th May 2019 · 1 min read
