Europe Economics Weekly ECB won’t be a QE Lagarde this time The continued weakness of the economic data, together with Christine Lagarde’s nomination as the new ECB president, makes us more confident that the Bank will loosen policy in the coming months... 5th July 2019 · 5 mins read
Global Markets Update E-Z government bond yields likely to be low for longer Christine Lagarde’s nomination as ECB President makes us even more optimistic about the near-term outlook for government bonds in the euro-zone and reinforces our view that corporate bonds there will... 5th July 2019 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (May) May’s euro-zone retail sales data were weaker than expected and support our view that GDP growth in the bloc slowed to 0.2% q/q in Q2. Looking ahead, lower inflation is likely to raise households’... 4th July 2019 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Final PMIs (Jun.) While the Composite PMIs for June were flat for Spain and edged up for Italy, the overall picture remains one of weak economic growth in the second quarter. And with price pressures remaining weak... 3rd July 2019 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update New ECB boss to be at least as dovish as Draghi Yesterday’s announcement that Christine Lagarde will succeed Mario Draghi leaves us even more confident that the ECB will loosen monetary policy in the coming months. We think the Bank is likely to... 3rd July 2019 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update A deep dive into euro-zone core inflation The jump in euro-zone core inflation in June seems to have largely reflected temporary factors. More generally, a range of measures of underlying inflation suggest that price pressures remain subdued... 2nd July 2019 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response Unemployment (May), Manuf. PMI (Jun.) May’s euro-zone unemployment data showed that the steady recovery in the region’s labour market continued, despite the likely slowdown in GDP growth in Q2. But with business surveys remaining gloomy... 1st July 2019 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI (Jun.) While headline HICP inflation came in unchanged in June, at 1.2%, the extent of the increase in services and core inflation was a bit of a surprise. But the increase in core inflation seems to have... 28th June 2019 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Focus Draghi to go out with a bang Recent comments by Mario Draghi suggest that the ECB will loosen policy sooner than we had anticipated. We now expect the Bank to strengthen its forward guidance in July and cut its deposit rate in... 26th June 2019 · 24 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Jun.) The slight improvement in the flash PMIs for June will not be enough to deflect the ECB from its new plan to ease policy within the coming months. We expect it to cut its deposit rate by 10bp in... 21st June 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Draghi spells out ECB’s dovish intentions Mr Draghi’s speech at the ECB’s conference this morning is the clearest indication yet that the Bank will cut interest rates and relaunch its asset purchase programme in the coming months if, as we... 18th June 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Trade (Apr.) Following March’s sharp fall, the euro-zone’s nominal goods trade surplus narrowed further in April. Given the softening of the export orders indices since the start of the year, we think that net... 18th June 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Outlook Total returns set to be sharply lower With the ECB likely to loosen monetary policy before too long, government bond yields look set to stay at very low levels for some time. As a result, we think that yield compression has a little... 18th June 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Labour Costs (Q1) The small pick-up in total labour cost growth to 2.4% y/y in Q1 was concentrated in the economies which have been hit hardest by the recent downturn and where the labour market has already begun to... 17th June 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Euro looking undervalued, especially for Germany Following Mario Draghi’s more dovish comments earlier in the month, we now think the Governing Council is more willing to loosen policy further and have revised our already more-dovish-than-consensus... 14th June 2019 · 1 min read
DM Markets Chart Pack Unlike bond yields, we expect equities to fall further Investors are now even more dovish that we have long been about the outlook for monetary policy in the US. As such, we doubt that Treasury yields will drop further. However, we don’t expect looser... 14th June 2019 · 1 min read
