ECB Watch Growth slowdown, virus rebound to keep ECB dovish The ECB will not make any major policy changes at next week’s Governing Council meeting, but President Lagarde will emphasise that policymakers expect to use the current €1.35trn PEPP envelope in full... 3rd September 2020 · 7 mins read
Europe Economics Update Measuring public sector output in the pandemic National statistics offices in the euro-zone have taken different approaches to estimating public sector services output during the lockdowns this year. This means that the extent of the falls in GDP... 3rd September 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (July) & Final PMIs (Aug) The recovery in euro-zone retail sales ended in July as sales fell slightly. And final PMIs for August suggest that the economy is growing only slowly, while Italy and Spain’s recovery may have gone... 3rd September 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Will the ECB follow the Fed’s lead? The Fed’s switch to an average inflation targeting regime and revised interpretation of its full employment goal are a response to challenges which are common to many economies, including the euro... 1st September 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash HICP (Aug.) & Unemployment (July) Euro-zone core inflation fell to a record low of 0.4% in August and we think that it will remain around that level for the next year at least. Meanwhile, labour market data also published today show... 1st September 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response EC Survey (August) The increase in the EC’s Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) for August was smaller than in the previous two months and left it well below its February level, while the index for Spain actually fell... 28th August 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (July) Broad money growth accelerated to a 12-year high in July, but we think that this will prove to be temporary and is not likely to push up inflation. Meanwhile, growth in bank lending to firms has... 27th August 2020 · 4 mins read
Europe Data Response EC Consumer Confidence (August) With the number of confirmed virus cases rising and employment support schemes being run down, it comes as no surprise that the EC’s measure of consumer confidence levelled off in August. That is... 21st August 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Early signs that activity might be falling The recent increase in virus cases across the euro-zone has been concentrated among younger people than in the first wave of the crisis, so it is putting less pressure on public health systems and... 21st August 2020 · 6 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (August) The fall back in the euro-zone Composite PMI in August suggests that the initial V-shaped rebound following the lifting of the lockdowns is already fizzling out. We suspect that activity will remain... 21st August 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update ECB to leave policy on hold for several months The account of the ECB’s last monetary policy meeting suggests that there was a strong consensus in favour of the current policy settings. Absent a big surprise in the economic data or fresh financial... 20th August 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack Retail property values move sharply lower Investment and occupier demand plunged further in Q2. As expected, the retail sector bore the brunt of the impact, with capital values falling by almost 9% y/y. This drove down all-property capital... 19th August 2020 · 9 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Final HICP (July) July’s jump in euro-zone core inflation was entirely due to delayed summer sales, so it should reverse in August now that those sales have begun. Meanwhile, social distancing rules appear to have had... 19th August 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Second wave likely to be a drag rather than a disaster Virus numbers have risen sharply in the past month, but the second wave has different characteristics from the first. It is concentrated in younger people, so hospitals are not being put under such... 19th August 2020 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Rebound phase coming to an end It seems increasingly likely that the rebound phase in the euro-zone is coming to an end. There is a bit more room for industrial production to rise in July, but not much beyond that, while retail... 14th August 2020 · 6 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP & Employment (Q2) The preliminary estimate of euro-zone GDP was unchanged in today’s release, but new data showed that the variation between countries was, if anything, larger than previously thought, while there was a... 14th August 2020 · 2 mins read
