Europe Economics Update Second wave a growing threat to the recovery The number of confirmed virus cases in the euro-zone has continued to increase rapidly in recent weeks and poses a growing threat to the economic recovery. Some countries, including Italy and Germany... 23rd September 2020 · 4 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (September) The further decline in the euro-zone Composite PMI in September adds to the evidence that the initial rebound in activity has already run out of steam. And with new restrictions being imposed... 23rd September 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response EC Consumer Confidence (Sep.) Even though virus cases are rising sharply and restrictions are being tightened, euro-zone consumer confidence rose in September. But we doubt this will be sustained. Further restrictions are being... 22nd September 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Outlook Slower recovery in values given weaker office outlook As widely expected, Q2 brought a range of disappointing data, from plunging investment volumes to further falls in retail rents. And while property values outside of retail have generally held up so... 18th September 2020 · 33 mins read
Europe Economics Focus Risk of inflation lower in the euro-zone than elsewhere If it is sustained for long enough, the policy stimulus being implemented in the euro-zone could eventually cause inflation to take off. However, we think it is more likely that policy is normalised... 17th September 2020 · 18 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Final HICP (Aug.) Euro-zone core inflation fell to a record low in August and we suspect that it will fall even further in September. Looking ahead, underlying price pressures are likely to remain weak. 17th September 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Spanish property prices set to fall back, not tumble The weak economic outlook has put the spotlight back on Spain’s property market. House price inflation was already slowing prior to the virus. But a big collapse in prices seems unlikely given that... 15th September 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Labour Costs (Q2) The jump in nominal hourly labour costs growth in Q2 is hardly a sign of a healthy labour market as total hours worked slumped by even more than employee compensation. The pick-up in activity since... 15th September 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Focus Remote working poses significant downside to rents As we have argued in our Global Property Focus, we think that some of the increase in remote working seen this year will become a permanent feature of working practices in office-based sectors in the... 14th September 2020 · 17 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (July) The further increase in industrial production in July confirmed that the sector is continuing to recover. But output is still some way below its pre-crisis level and the pace of the rebound has slowed... 14th September 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Euro worries increase chance of rate cut The euro is back in the spotlight this week, with the likes of ECB chief economist Philip Lane worrying (too much in our in view) about the impact of its recent appreciation on the inflation outlook... 11th September 2020 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Update Lagarde dashes hopes of early addition to stimulus While no policy change was expected today, President Lagarde used the press conference to convey a slightly less gloomy message about the economy. She also dampened expectations for an early increase... 10th September 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update ECB probably not too worried about the euro While the euro’s recent appreciation has generated a lot of attention, it is in fact close to its historical average by most measures. So while ECB policymakers may note at today’s press conference... 10th September 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP & Employment (Q2) The third estimate of euro-zone GDP showed that the plunge in economic activity in the second quarter was broad-based, with investment and exports faring particularly poorly. The rapid rebound in Q3... 8th September 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Recovery slows and inflation turns negative The rebound phase has now come to an end. Retail sales declined in July and both the business surveys and high frequency data suggest that economic activity levelled off in August. Of course, the... 4th September 2020 · 12 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Weak data and strong(ish) euro ahead of ECB meeting The latest data suggest that the euro-zone’s economic recovery is losing pace and price pressures are extremely weak. With some ECB policymakers also concerned by the appreciation of the euro, they... 4th September 2020 · 6 mins read
