UK Commercial Property Focus Is COVID-19 the death-knell for physical retail? Retail has been hit hard by the COVID-19 crisis and lasting changes to online spending will bring further pain. While our estimates suggest that the impact is likely to be less severe than structural... 8th October 2020 · 27 mins read
Europe Economics Update ECB account suggests no rush to boost the PEPP The account of the last ECB Governing Council meeting suggests that policymakers were in no hurry to increase the size of the PEPP. There has been more disappointing news on the economy since then... 8th October 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Second wave hitting growth prospects The reimposition of coronavirus restrictions has caused the recovery to stall – if not go into reverse in many countries – with France and Spain most affected. There are tentative signs that the... 7th October 2020 · 12 mins read
Europe Economics Update Motor vehicles unlikely to drive euro-zone inflation We think car makers in the euro-zone will be able to keep pace with demand for new vehicles this year, despite having had to introduce social distancing measures to their production processes... 7th October 2020 · 4 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (Aug.) & Final PMIs (Sep.) The increase in retail sales to above their pre-crisis level in August overstates the strength of the recovery in household consumption. Spending on travel, hospitality and entertainment will have... 5th October 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly New virus numbers peaking, inflation falls further There is a chink of light at the end of the tunnel for France and Spain, where the number of new COVID-19 cases has begun to fall. But this may be too late to prevent a contraction in GDP in the... 2nd October 2020 · 7 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash HICP (Sep.) September’s decline in euro-zone core inflation to a fresh record low was partly due to temporary factors that will be reversed in October. And the downward trend in core inflation this year has been... 2nd October 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Low inflation expectations add to ECB worries While it is not clear that inflation expectations are less well anchored that in the past, they are at a low level. With the actual inflation rate falling, this reinforces the case for further ECB... 1st October 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Unemployment (August) The small rise in the euro-zone unemployment rate in August suggests that the winding back of short-time work schemes is already starting to take its toll on the region’s labour market. With... 1st October 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Lagarde points to dovish strategy conclusions President Lagarde’s speech today suggests that she will argue for a higher, symmetric inflation target and a move towards a form of average inflation targeting as part of the ECB’s strategy review... 30th September 2020 · 4 mins read
Europe Data Response EC Survey (Sep.) The small improvement in the EC’s Economic Sentiment Indicator for September was slightly better than anticipated. However, the index remained at a low level, and we suspect that it has not accurately... 29th September 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Bankruptcy phoney war coming to an end Having instructed many firms to cease trading during the lockdowns, governments understandably pulled out all the stops to prevent them from going under. However, we expect this support to be... 28th September 2020 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Update Can the euro-zone avoid a labour market “cliff edge”? Short-time work schemes are not being used as much as they were in the spring, but they still account for about 5% of the labour force. So as euro-zone governments reduce support for jobs (in the way... 25th September 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Services activity falling as virus rules are tightened This week brought evidence that the economic recovery is grinding to a halt and that activity in the services sector is falling. And with the stringency of virus containment measures only going in one... 25th September 2020 · 7 mins read
Europe Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Aug.) The surge in lending growth during and immediately after lockdowns is well and truly over. But with the authorities tightening virus containment measures again and signs that the economic recovery is... 25th September 2020 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update ECB likely to cut interest rates on TLTROs again Some policymakers at the ECB have hinted recently that further policy loosening could be on the way. There is little to be gained from announcing an expansion to QE at this stage, but we wouldn’t be... 24th September 2020 · 3 mins read
