Global Economic Outlook Recovery signs clouded by political uncertainty The global economy seems to be heading into recovery mode as the adverse effects of the previous surge in inflation subside. Real incomes are recovering in most advanced economies and China is feeling... 27th June 2024 · 46 mins read
FX Markets Update Assessing French election risk for the euro The upcoming French election continues to loom over euro-zone financial markets and the euro. We think it would take a worst case scenario in which France’s fiscal outlook worsens materially to... 27th June 2024 · 4 mins read
Europe Rapid Response EC Survey (June 2024) The EC business and consumer survey for June is consistent with weak growth in euro-zone GDP and suggests that price pressures continue to ease in manufacturing but remain strong in the services... 27th June 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Money and lending growth likely to remain slow May’s data show a continued gradual increase in money and lending growth, though both remain slow. While the ECB’s loosening cycle is now underway, money and lending growth are set to remain subdued. 27th June 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Benelux prime office rent outperformance to wane A soft start to 2024 for office demand and weak jobs outlook in Benelux suggest that recent rental outperformance will not last. With supply also rising, we think prime rental growth will slow to... 27th June 2024 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Munich office rent boom has further to go, Berlin trails We are generally pessimistic about the rental outlook in Germany, however, this conceals large variance across cities – most notably for offices between leader Munich and laggard Berlin. Munich prime... 25th June 2024 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update How might the ECB respond to a French fiscal crisis? If the results of France’s election, or actions of the next French government, trigger contagion to other euro-zone countries’ bond markets, the ECB could respond by purchasing their bonds using the... 25th June 2024 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Update Q&A on French election: politics, economics, markets This Update summarises the answers to some of the questions which clients raised in our recent online briefing about the forthcoming French legislative elections. The questions are divided into three... 24th June 2024 · 8 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Germany Ifo Survey (June 2024) June’s decline in the Ifo business climate indicator (BCI) to a very low level highlights that even after Germany’s economy grew in Q1, it is far from back to full health. 24th June 2024 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily Euro-zone PMIs point to lower bund yields and a weak euro Weaker-than-expected euro-zone PMIs in June leave us confident in our view that bund yields will edge down over the coming months, while we doubt spreads will fall back much in France or Italy. This... 21st June 2024 · 5 mins read
Asset Allocation Update French politics need not sink euro-zone stocks Recent political uncertainty in France has taken a big toll on equities there, but stock markets elsewhere in the euro-zone have generally avoided major selloffs. That’s broadly consistent with past... 21st June 2024 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update Netherlands set to outperform the euro-zone average With all eyes on France, it is easy to forget that the Netherlands has also been experiencing political disruption over the last 12 months. But politics there has proved less disruptive to markets and... 21st June 2024 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Excessive deficits; lessons from Italy’s 2018 mini crisis The European Commission this week announced its intention to put five euro-zone countries, including France and Italy, into Excessive Deficit Procedures. This will concentrate investors’ minds on the... 21st June 2024 · 7 mins read
Event Drop-In: French election outcome – Fiscal policy outlook and market risk 1720432800 Will this snap election mark the end of the France's political turmoil? And will the election results convince the bond vigilantes to stand down?
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (June 2024) The sharp drop in the euro-zone Composite PMI in June suggests a solid recovery in the euro-zone economy is not a done deal, with activity having apparently stagnated this month. Meanwhile, aggregate... 21st June 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update French bond sell-off could get worse We see three scenarios for French fiscal policy in the coming months. Even in the best case the spread of French over German bond yields remains higher than before Macron called an early election. In... 20th June 2024 · 4 mins read
