Europe Economics Update Slow start to jab rollout may come back to bite Europe While the vaccine rollout in Europe has finally kicked into gear, the legacy of the slow start means the EU is more exposed than the UK or the US if the Indian variant spreads quickly amongst the... 18th May 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Focus ECB climate rhetoric to run ahead of action The ECB will make a big splash about climate change when it concludes its monetary strategy review this autumn. In practice, it is likely to make progress in addressing climate-related risks in the... 18th May 2021 · 14 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP & Employment (Q1) The euro-zone economy contracted again in Q1 but continued progress on reducing Covid infections and administering vaccines suggests that the region’s economic recovery is underway. 18th May 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Bond markets testing the ECB The account of April’s ECB meeting (published on Friday) reiterated that policymakers intended to preserve favourable financing conditions, but bond yields have continued to rise since then. That... 14th May 2021 · 6 mins read
Global Markets Update Euro-zone corporate credit spreads may fall a little further While we don’t think there is much scope for corporate credit spreads generally to narrow much further from here, in our view spreads in the euro-zone could fall a bit more than those in the US or the... 13th May 2021 · 4 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (Mar.) The small rise in euro-zone industrial production in March suggests that the region’s manufacturing sector is still far from back to normal, as persistent supply shortages outweigh strengthening... 12th May 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update ECB won’t go as far as Fed with average inflation aim Following its strategic review, we think the ECB will set its formal definition of price stability as an inflation rate of 2%. But it might also adjust its forward guidance to signal some tolerance... 11th May 2021 · 6 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Hamburg office rental growth set to outperform As the recovery in occupier demand gets underway, we think that the low amounts of vacant modern space, limited supply pipeline and comparatively cheap rents will mean that prime office rental growth... 11th May 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Economy re-opening again With the economic and vaccine data having improved in recent weeks we have nudged up our forecasts for economic growth this year. Meanwhile, European governments have handed in their recovery plans to... 7th May 2021 · 5 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Vaccination pace finally picks up After contracting again in the first quarter of this year, prospects for the second quarter have improved because the pace of vaccination has accelerated. At its recent pace, the euro-zone is on track... 6th May 2021 · 12 mins read
Global Markets Update We think that euro-zone yields will rise only gradually Despite tentative signs of improvement in the euro-zone economy recently and our expectation that long-term US Treasury yields will rise significantly over the next couple of years, we forecast that... 6th May 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (Mar.) Euro-zone retail sales rose again in March to back above their pre-pandemic levels. The planned lifting of restrictions should allow sales to improve further in the coming months, so household... 6th May 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone recovery about to begin Following the recent progress on vaccinations across the euro-zone, we are revising up our GDP forecasts. We now think that the recovery will begin in Q2 and that the economy will return to its pre... 5th May 2021 · 5 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Final PMIs (Apr.) The PMIs may be a less reliable guide to activity growth than normal, but recent progress on vaccinations suggests that the euro-zone economy will start to recover in Q2. And price pressures are... 5th May 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP (Q1, first estimate) Confirmation that the euro-zone economy contracted again in Q1 means that the region suffered a second technical recession in just over a year. But the good news is that things should get better... 30th April 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash HICP Inflation (April) Euro-zone inflation continued on its upward trend in April and we think that it will soon rise above 2%. But that should only be temporary and we expect it to fall back below the ECB’s target in 2022. 30th April 2021 · 2 mins read
