Europe Data Response EC Survey (June) Economic sentiment in the euro-zone improved sharply in June as restrictions were lifted further. Although industrial confidence was flattered by low levels of stocks, presumably relating to supply... 29th June 2021 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Money & Credit (May) The signs that households have started to borrow again provide us with confidence that May’s surprise fall in retail sales was a result of a shift in spending from retailers to other areas as the... 29th June 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly EZ economy bounces back, but ECB doves hold sway The uniformly strong surveys for June suggest that the euro-zone economy is recovering at a decent pace from the lockdowns earlier in the year. That might prompt some re-opening inflation – data next... 25th June 2021 · 8 mins read
Europe Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (May) The further slowdown in the money supply growth in May is due to big changes during the first lockdown dropping out of the annual comparison. Money supply data will be affected by the pandemic for a... 25th June 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Travel restrictions pour cold water on Spanish tourism Lingering restrictions on international travel to control the spread of the Delta variant mean that Spanish foreign tourist revenues this year will probably be only half what they were in 2019. That... 24th June 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (June) The German football team only narrowly scraped through the group stage of the Euros yesterday, but the news about the economy continues to be much more emphatic. 24th June 2021 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update Reflationary recovery races on Inflation indicators in the flash PMIs for June reached new record highs and supplier delivery times lengthened still further. However, outside the US at least, there are few signs that goods... 23rd June 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update How likely is a hawkish surprise by the ECB? Last week’s surprise change in the Fed’s guidance about how soon it is likely to raise its key policy rate raises the question of whether the ECB will follow suit. In our view, although the euro-zone... 23rd June 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (June) The further strengthening of the euro-zone Composite PMI to a 15-year high in June underlines that the economy is rebounding quickly. Alongside this recovery, price pressures are continuing to build... 23rd June 2021 · 3 mins read
Global Inflation Watch Inflation picture more nuanced than headlines suggest While rising commodity prices and supply shortages are boosting inflation everywhere for now, the outlook is mixed. The boost from energy prices will fade soon as the anniversary of last year’s slump... 21st June 2021 · 15 mins read
Global Economics Update How much of the rise in inflation is due to ‘base effects’? Much of the rise in inflation in major advanced economies from February to May has reflected the fact that prices fell in the same period a year ago. That said, depending on how you measure it, around... 18th June 2021 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Euro-zone on the rebound Football fans will not need to be told that life is still not quite back to normal in Europe as the stadiums are less than half full and “Euro 2020” is taking place a full year late. But in many... 18th June 2021 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Update No-Frexit Le Pen would still be a step back for France Marine Le Pen’s RN party is likely to do well in French regional elections this month, a key test ahead of next year’s presidential election. A Le Pen presidency would no longer entail a “Frexit” but... 17th June 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Final HICP (May) The final euro-zone inflation data for May do not provide much evidence that price pressures are rising as the economy re-opens. We suspect that these will materialise in the coming months and will... 17th June 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Labour shortages little threat to German wage restraint There is less spare capacity in Germany’s labour market than elsewhere in the euro-zone, and economic activity is set to regain its pre-crisis level before long. However, we think wage inflation... 16th June 2021 · 4 mins read
Energy Update Higher oil production to weigh on prices in 2022 Higher production from OPEC+ member states and in the Americas means that global oil production is set to rise sharply over the next eighteen months. This is the reason why we expect oil prices to... 16th June 2021 · 5 mins read
