Commodities Chart Pack Gas & coal surge to support other commodity prices Natural gas and coal prices soared in September. In turn, this has raised the output costs of industrial metals, most notably those which are especially energy intensive such as aluminium and steel... 5th October 2021 · 12 mins read
Europe Economics Update Changing HICP weights add to inflation uncertainty Changes to the weights applied to the goods and services in the inflation basket pushed inflation up in January, but since April the new weights have kept the headline rate lower than it would... 5th October 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Final PMIs (Sep.) The PMIs are consistent with the euro-zone’s economic recovery losing some momentum as GDP approaches its pre-pandemic size and as supply shortages take their toll, especially in manufacturing. The... 5th October 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Households’ excess savings continue to build Households continued to accumulate “excess” savings in Q2 this year, with those held as cash and bank deposits equivalent to about 4% of GDP. We do not expect all of this to be spent, but some of it... 4th October 2021 · 4 mins read
Energy Update Oil prices to fall as market returns to surplus in 2022 We expect a gradual normalisation in demand growth and a rebound in supply will start to weigh on oil prices from the fourth quarter. So far this year, growth in demand has outpaced supply, helping... 4th October 2021 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly “Transitory” inflation won’t spook the ECB We have revised up our inflation forecasts this week and expect the surge in gas prices to keep inflation above the ECB’s target for longer than previously anticipated. Nonetheless, inflation looks... 1st October 2021 · 6 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash HICP (Sep.) Euro-zone inflation looks set to continue on its upward trend and we think it will soon hit 4%. That makes it more likely that the ECB will scale back its asset purchases substantially in March. But... 1st October 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update ECB could claim inflation is “transient” for years The ECB is likely to argue that the increase in inflation to above its 2% target is “transient” even if it continues for much longer than currently expected. The key question is not how long inflation... 30th September 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Risk of euro-zone labour market “cliff edge” very low Euro-zone governments’ reduction in support for jobs will not cause unemployment in the region to jump, since there are now relatively few workers benefiting, and hiring activity is strong. But... 30th September 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response EZ Unemployment (Aug.) The fall in euro-zone unemployment in August brings the jobless rate back very close to its pre-pandemic level. But employment is still below pre-virus levels, highlighting that the labour market... 30th September 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response EC Survey (September) The small improvement in economic sentiment in the euro-zone in September provides reassurance that supply shortages and the Delta variant will not cause a sharp slowdown in economic growth... 29th September 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Revising up our euro-zone inflation forecasts As a result of the increase in gas prices, we now think that euro-zone headline inflation will soon hit 4% and that it will average 2% in 2022. But headline and core inflation still look set to fall... 28th September 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update No major policy shift likely following German election With the CDU/CSU and SDP having won very similar shares of the vote, the composition of Germany’s next government still hangs in the balance. An SDP-led coalition would probably pursue a slightly less... 27th September 2021 · 3 mins read
Energy Update Three potential catalysts for lower European gas prices A mild winter in the Northern Hemisphere, a substitution of gas for other fuels in electricity generation, and/or a rise in supply via Nord Stream 2 could all send European gas prices lower in the... 24th September 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB rate hikes a distant prospect, Merkel era at an end Even as other central banks hinted this week at a shift towards tighter monetary policy, we doubt that the ECB will follow suit. Meanwhile, the business surveys suggested that while supply-chain... 24th September 2021 · 7 mins read
Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (September) The third successive decline in the Ifo Business Climate Index in September provides further evidence that Germany’s recovery is losing steam, as supply chain difficulties persist and the surge in gas... 24th September 2021 · 2 mins read
