Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP (Q3) The solid increase in euro-zone GDP in the third quarter means that the recovery phase is now almost complete in most of the euro-zone. Growth will be much slower in Q4 because the boost from... 29th October 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash HICP (Oct.) Euro-zone inflation looks set to rise further before year-end as higher input costs continue to feed through. We agree with the ECB that the forces pushing inflation up should fade next year, and our... 29th October 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Labour market slack to fall further, mitigating shortages Data published this week provide more evidence that the supply of labour has held up fairly well in the euro-zone and that those who have left the labour market have probably not done so permanently... 28th October 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update ECB sticking to view that inflation is transient The ECB stuck to its script today, arguing that although the increase in inflation now underway will be larger and last longer than previously anticipated, it is still temporary. Meanwhile... 28th October 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Investment to peak later next year The Q3 investment data indicate that activity could be slightly stronger this year than we had expected. However, with the economic recovery topping out and structural headwinds limiting investment in... 28th October 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response EC Survey (October) The EC Economic Sentiment Indicator for October increased a touch, but the details show that expectations for production declined slightly, probably due to the worsening supply chain problems. So... 28th October 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Sep.) Money growth has slowed this year and is likely to decline further next year. Meanwhile, although the pandemic has resulted in a huge increase in the money supply, we do not think this will cause... 27th October 2021 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update Italy’s labour force likely to make full recovery Since the start of the pandemic, Italy has experienced a bigger drop in its workforce than other euro-zone countries. But that largely reflects temporary factors, which suggests that the labour force... 26th October 2021 · 4 mins read
Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (October) The fourth successive monthly fall in the Ifo Business Climate Index provides more evidence – if it were needed – that supply side disruption is causing the German economy to slow sharply and suggests... 25th October 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Risk of stronger French industrial rental growth ahead We expect steady French industrial rental growth over the next few years on the back of a solid economic backdrop and more online shopping. That said, if construction costs and land constraints become... 25th October 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Are consumer spending habits returning to normal? We don’t have much timely official data on the detailed breakdown of consumption. But the available evidence shows a sharp (albeit uneven) increase in spending on services since the end of Q2. While... 22nd October 2021 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly A fresh start for the Bundesbank? Other than Mr Weidmann’s abrupt departure from the Bundesbank, the news this week has been dominated by the twin problems of rising inflation and slowing economic growth. There is more bad news to... 22nd October 2021 · 8 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Oct.) October’s euro-zone PMI surveys suggest that supply problems in the manufacturing sector are getting worse, weighing on output and causing price pressures to intensify. 22nd October 2021 · 2 mins read
ECB Watch ECB insisting that inflation is largely transient Nobody expects the ECB Governing Council to make any policy changes at next week’s monetary policy meeting. However, Christine Lagarde will address concerns about rising inflationary pressures and we... 21st October 2021 · 7 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Near-term upgrades to German office rental growth Prime office rental growth in Germany is on track to be stronger than forecast in the near term. However, we think rental growth will slow in the coming years as the supply of modern space is expected... 20th October 2021 · 3 mins read
