Europe Data Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (Sep.) The second successive monthly decline in industrial production, in September, means that production was unchanged in Q3 compared to Q2. As supply-chain difficulties are likely to persist for some time... 12th November 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Spanish inflation surge another headwind to recovery The jump in headline inflation in Spain in October was almost entirely down to the electricity component. We do not expect this bout of higher inflation to last, but in the meantime, consumers are... 12th November 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Dutch industrial rental growth catching up with EZ A healthy occupier backdrop and a shortage of supply should allow prime industrial rents in the Netherlands to continue to grow at a steady pace over the coming years. As a result, after years of... 11th November 2021 · 3 mins read
Energy Focus Lessons from the EU’s carbon permit market This year, the EU announced reforms to its Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) which, if introduced, would boost the price of each carbon permit and ultimately help the bloc to rapidly reduce its... 10th November 2021 · 14 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Recovery slowed by supply chain problems Economic growth has slowed sharply as output approaches its pre-pandemic level. We think that GDP will probably increase by only around 0.5% q/q in the final quarter, down from 2.2% in Q3... 8th November 2021 · 12 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update German retail vacancy to remain elevated The latest data show that conditions in the German retail sector are improving. Nevertheless, we think vacancy will be slow to reverse as pandemic shifts lead to weakness in in-store demand... 8th November 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Effect of shortages on activity and inflation will persist There is growing evidence that global goods shortages are weighing on euro-zone activity. We expect this to contribute to a marked slowdown in growth in Q4, and the outlook for early 2022 is no better... 5th November 2021 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB pushes back as inflation pressures build ECB policymakers were out in force this week insisting that the Bank will not raise rates next year. We agree that they are very unlikely to do so, not least because we think the Bank’s inflation... 5th November 2021 · 5 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (Sep.) Retail sales have levelled off since June as consumer spending on other services has increased. The latest survey evidence suggests that low inventory levels might also be limiting sales and are set... 5th November 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response German Industrial Production (September) The 1.1% m/m fall in industrial production in September was worse than the consensus and our own expectation. Business surveys suggest that shortages of components, particularly in the auto sector... 5th November 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Spain’s recovery held back by tourism and consumers Spain is a long way behind its euro-zone neighbours in recovering from the pandemic. That is partly because its important tourism sector has been hamstrung by travel restrictions but it also reflects... 4th November 2021 · 4 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Final PMIs (Oct.) The PMIs suggest the euro-zone’s economic recovery will slow markedly in Q4 as supply shortages intensified throughout the region, especially for manufacturers. They also show that price pressures are... 4th November 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Upward revision to our Germany inflation forecast The recent surge in energy prices and worsening supply chain disruption will keep Germany’s inflation rate higher next year than we had anticipated. However, we still think inflation will fall from a... 3rd November 2021 · 4 mins read
Europe Data Response EZ Unemployment (Sep.) While the fall in euro-zone unemployment in September brings the jobless rate back to its pre-pandemic level, employment has not fully recovered. But the economy is growing strongly and the vast... 3rd November 2021 · 2 mins read
UK Housing Market Focus How pandemic changes will affect European cities Europeans are returning to cities, though the return to offices has been much slower and this has had negative effects on city retail. Looking ahead, weaker demand for office and retail will weigh on... 2nd November 2021 · 14 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Investors unconvinced by ECB’s dovish message The ECB’s “soul searching” over inflation has made investors less, not more, convinced that the Bank will buck the hawkish trend elsewhere and keep policy rates on hold. We think investors have got... 29th October 2021 · 8 mins read
