Europe Data Response Germany Flash Inflation (Nov.) The increase in German inflation to 6% on the HICP measure was partly due to statistical quirks which should be reversed next month. But even the national CPI measure of inflation rose to 5.2%... 29th November 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Valuation Monitor Valuations worsen, but office and retail still fair value Higher alternative asset yields and falls in office and industrial yields contributed to a further deterioration in property valuations in Q3. The decline in government bond yields since then, which... 29th November 2021 · 7 mins read
Europe Data Response EC Survey (November) Despite the slight deterioration on the month, November’s EC business and consumer survey showed that economic sentiment in the euro-zone was high before the recent news about the Omicron variant. It... 29th November 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Rising Covid fears will keep policymakers dovish It is too early to judge how serious the B.1.1.529 variant will turn out to be, but it certainly reinforces the case for central banks to be ultra-cautious when withdrawing their policy support. We... 26th November 2021 · 11 mins read
Europe Economics Update PEPP not guaranteed to end in March The account of October’s ECB meeting suggests that it is by no means guaranteed that net PEPP purchases will end in March. And even if they do, the Bank may well leave open the possibility of re... 25th November 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (November) The fall in the Ifo Business Climate Index (BCI) for November was in line with expectations and suggests that the German economy was struggling even before the recent tightening of Covid restrictions... 24th November 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Q4 outlook darkens as tighter restrictions loom Germany’s worsening Covid situation means much of the country could be subject to much tighter restrictions soon, potentially knocking around 0.25%-pts off euro-zone Q4 GDP. Even if other countries... 23rd November 2021 · 3 mins read
Energy Update Taking stock of the European natural gas market European natural gas prices were in the news again last week, soaring by 18%. Given stocks are still low and there are few signs of extra flows from Russia, we think that prices will remain high in... 23rd November 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Nov.) The unexpected rise in the euro-zone Composite PMI in November suggests that the region’s recovery has not lost further momentum. But with supply shortages still acute, Covid restrictions being... 23rd November 2021 · 2 mins read
Commodities Weekly The energy crisis rumbles on … This week showed that the energy crisis is not in the rear-view mirror just yet. Germany’s energy regulator suspended its certification process of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline on Tuesday, owing to... 19th November 2021 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Austria lockdown casts shadow over rest of euro-zone The “full lockdown” in Austria announced earlier today is a response to the rapid deterioration in the Covid situation there and we estimate that it could knock around 1.5% off the country’s GDP in Q4... 19th November 2021 · 6 mins read
DM Markets Chart Pack We think US inflation compensation will rise further US 10-year inflation compensation has risen by another 20bp or so over the past month and we think it will increase further as inflation in the US proves more persistent than most expect. This is one... 19th November 2021 · 8 mins read
Commodities Focus Sky-high European steel prices on borrowed time After soaring towards the tail end of 2020, steel prices in Europe have eased back in recent months. And we think that prices will fall much further over the next couple of years, as a combination of... 18th November 2021 · 10 mins read
Europe Economics Update New Covid restrictions another headwind Several euro-zone governments have tightened coronavirus rules lately and more measures are on the cards, including in Germany. On the whole, these are set to be less severe than they were earlier... 18th November 2021 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update We now expect E-Z “peripheral” spreads to widen a bit We now think that, rather than remaining broadly stable, the spreads of euro-zone “peripheral” bonds will widen somewhat over the next two years as the ECB gradually normalises monetary policy. That... 17th November 2021 · 6 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Final HICP (Oct.) October’s euro-zone inflation data confirm that core price pressures are weaker than in other advanced economies. That said, we think headline inflation will remain above 2% until late 2022. 17th November 2021 · 2 mins read
