Europe Economics Weekly Europe Weekly: Trump tariffs dampen the mood With the major business surveys for March now published it is clear that economic activity is still growing slowly at best. The good news about the German fiscal stimulus has boosted sentiment but the... 28th March 2025 · 8 mins read
Europe Economics Focus Risks to the upside for euro-zone net migration Net immigration to the euro-zone has been very high in recent years, and the risks are skewed towards it exceeding the European Commission’s projection of 0.3% per year over the long term. The... 28th March 2025 · 9 mins read
Europe Rapid Response EC Survey (March 2025) The EC survey for March shows a deterioration in business and consumer sentiment in the euro-zone, consistent with GDP doing little more than stagnate in Q1. This is a reminder that while sentiment in... 28th March 2025 · 2 mins read
Bonds Update Revising down our forecasts for euro-zone spreads Given our view that the rise in yields outside Germany will not match the recent increase in Bund yields anytime soon, we are revising down our forecasts for euro-zone spreads. That said, we still... 28th March 2025 · 4 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Outlook Europe Commercial Property Outlook: Higher interest rates weaken the recovery Following upward revisions to our forecasts for policy rates and bond yields, we have raised our forecasts for prime property yields in Europe and now expect increases of around 20-25bps by the end of... 27th March 2025 · 28 mins read
Global Economic Outlook Global Economic Outlook: Trade war to dampen, not derail, global growth We expect the world economy to grow a touch slower in the next couple of years than it did in 2024. Trump’s policies will drag on US growth, policy support will not prevent a slowdown in China’s... 27th March 2025 · 45 mins read
Global Economics Update The implications of US vehicle tariffs In this Update, we answer several key questions about how the announced 25% tariffs on US imports of autos and parts might affect the global economy and the US itself. Mexico, Slovakia and Korea are... 27th March 2025 · 7 mins read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone money and lending growth continues to rise Data released this morning showed that euro-zone money and lending growth continued to accelerate in February, supporting the case of those at the ECB who would prefer to pause interest rate cuts in... 27th March 2025 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Focus The Mar-a-Lago Accord: cutting through the chatter It is becoming clear that President Trump’s actions are driven by both his fixation on reducing the US trade deficit and his transactional approach to dealing with other countries. So, even though the... 25th March 2025 · 25 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Germany Ifo Survey (March 2025) The Ifo Business Climate Index (BCI) and other surveys for March confirm that the prospect of fiscal stimulus is boosting sentiment in Germany and outweighing concerns about US tariffs for now. But... 25th March 2025 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily Shifting economic sands in US & EZ are also driving markets Over the past month or so, economic data have generally surprised to the downside in the US, whereas they have done the opposite in the euro-zone. This may be one reason for the intervening shift in... 24th March 2025 · 4 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Focus Dutch residential to outperform in the euro-zone Residential has been the Netherlands’ strongest performing commercial property sector since the GFC, with bumper rent growth a key contributor to that outperformance. Looking ahead, slower wage growth... 24th March 2025 · 18 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (March 2025) February’s Flash Composite PMI provides more evidence that, after expanding by only 0.1% in Q4, the euro-zone economy remains all but stagnant in Q1. 24th March 2025 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Europe Weekly: New, higher growth forecasts Optimism about the euro-zone economy has risen markedly in recent weeks and we have revised our GDP growth forecasts up. We now think the economy will grow by 0.9% this year, 1.2% in 2026 and 1.0% in... 21st March 2025 · 6 mins read
Europe Economic Outlook Europe Outlook: Zeitenwende! The euro-zone will get a boost from Germany’s decision to ditch its fiscal rules and ramp up defence spending, as well as the relaxation of the EU’s budget rules. But governments other than Germany... 21st March 2025 · 28 mins read
Europe Economics Update Lower services inflation to prompt more ECB rate cuts Euro-zone services inflation fell to a 10-month low in February and leading indicators point to further declines in the coming months. We think this will prompt the ECB to cut interest rates at its... 19th March 2025 · 2 mins read
