Europe Data Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (Apr.) Euro-zone retail sales fell back again in April to below their pre-pandemic levels. But the re-opening of non-essential retail throughout much of the euro-zone in May means they will have improved... 4th June 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone wage pressures will prove limited There are some signs of labour shortages developing in parts of the euro-zone, notably in hospitality. But they are likely to be short-lived and will not put sustained upward pressure on wages. And... 3rd June 2021 · 4 mins read
ECB Watch Preparing the ground for a super-dovish taper We think the ECB will tweak its monetary policy statement next week by pledging to maintain favourable financing conditions but not renewing its pledge to keep PEPP purchases at the recent... 3rd June 2021 · 8 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Consensus catching up to the view of a weak recovery The latest IPF Consensus forecasts are consistent with our view that prime office rents will fall this year and the recovery in 2022 will be weak, even as the easing of virus restrictions allows... 3rd June 2021 · 3 mins read
Energy Chart Pack Prices to be falling by end-year Cold weather in parts of the northern hemisphere helped push up the prices of coal and natural gas last month, while oil prices also rose. We still think that average energy prices will be higher this... 2nd June 2021 · 6 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs imply that goods shortages are pushing up prices The global manufacturing PMI held broadly steady in May as a sharp drop in India’s survey was offset by rises in other major economies whose recoveries appear to be continuing unabated. Meanwhile... 1st June 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash HICP (May) & Unemployment (Apr.) The jump in euro-zone inflation to 2.0% in May will not be the end of the upward trend, but we expect inflation to drop back sharply next year as temporary factors are reversed. 1st June 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Drop back in bond yields takes pressure off ECB The fall in sovereign bond yields over the past week may make things a little easier for the ECB Governing Council when it meets on 10 th June. We think it is likely to replace its commitment to make... 28th May 2021 · 8 mins read
Europe Data Response EC Survey (May) As Covid restrictions continue to be lifted, it is no surprise that economic sentiment in the euro-zone improved in May. The EC survey also showed that input shortages are causing price pressures to... 28th May 2021 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Norges Bank and Riksbank won’t wait for the ECB The Norges Bank has a history of beginning to tighten policy earlier than the ECB and we think it will follow that pattern again this year. Meanwhile, although it’s not the most likely scenario, we... 27th May 2021 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update Italy Recovery Plan: Bidenomics or Marshall Plan 2.0? Italy’s Recovery and Resilience Plan could provide a significant boost to aggregate demand in the coming years. And arguably even more important are the accompanying structural reforms, which could... 26th May 2021 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily We think the euro’s recent strength will prove to be transitory While recent strong data confirm that the economic recovery in the eurozone is underway, we continue to think the euro will weaken against the US dollar this year. 25th May 2021 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs: supply is struggling to keep up with demand The flash PMIs for May suggest that the recovery is well underway in those economies that are now on top of the virus. However, supply is still struggling to keep up with surging demand. And as well... 21st May 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Summer tourism a step closer, ECB unruffled by yields The chances of a vaguely normal summer tourism season increased this week after European policymakers agreed on proposals to allow fully vaccinated tourists to travel to the EU and increased the... 21st May 2021 · 5 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (May) May’s rise in the euro-zone Composite PMI reflects the further lifting of restrictions in many parts of the region and suggests the economic recovery is now fully underway. Supply chain difficulties... 21st May 2021 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update US pay pressures are the exception, not the norm While pay growth has risen across the developed economies, in several cases this reflects reduced hours or the fact that a disproportionate number of low paid workers have lost their jobs. There are... 20th May 2021 · 4 mins read
