UK Economics Chart Pack UK Economics Chart Pack (Aug. 2023) Despite the easing in CPI inflation from 8.7% in May to 7.9% in June and core inflation from 7.1% to 6.9%, we think strong wage growth and the continued resilience of real GDP will mean interest rates... 1st August 2023 · 1 min read
Europe Rapid Response EZ Unemployment (June) The euro-zone labour market remains extremely tight, with the unemployment rate steady at a record low in June. We expect weakness in activity to cause labour market conditions to loosen somewhat in... 1st August 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Will the surge in Warsaw industrial rents continue? Warsaw industrial rents have seen an unprecedented surge in recent months on the back of strong demand and supply constraints due to the war in Ukraine. And while growth is set to slow significantly... 1st August 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Rapid Response Nationwide House Prices (Jul.) The slight fall in house prices in July is the first sign of the surge in mortgage rates since mid-May taking its toll. As we expect mortgage rates to remain around their current level for the next 12... 1st August 2023 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily EZ bond yields may fall back after one last ECB hike While we suspect that sticky core inflation in the euro-zone will mean “higher for longer” interest rates there, we think that the ECB will eventually deliver more rate cuts than currently priced into... 31st July 2023 · 5 mins read
Energy Focus The implications of EV rollouts on DM oil demand The message from electric vehicle sales data is now clear: the EV revolution is alive and kicking and poses important implications for oil demand. We are slightly more optimistic on the pace of EV... 31st July 2023 · 19 mins read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone GDP not as good as it looks The 0.3% rise in euro-zone GDP in Q2 was largely due to a huge increase in Ireland’s GDP and the export of a cruise ship from France. Neither of these is a sustainable source of growth. With more of... 31st July 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone GDP (Q2) and HICP (July) July’s inflation data will have been a disappointment for policymakers as, although headline inflation fell in line with expectations, core inflation was unchanged at 5.5% and services inflation... 31st July 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Italy GDP (Q2 2023) The drop in GDP in Italy in Q2 means euro-zone output probably rose by 0.3% q/q in Q2, and just 0.1% if Ireland is excluded. Italy is no longer outperforming its peers and we think it will experience... 31st July 2023 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Money & Credit (Jun. 2023) Higher interest rates continued to gradually feed through to weaker activity in bank lending in June, particularly in the housing market. We suspect this effect will intensify as the Bank of England... 31st July 2023 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update Track record suggests EU will be slow to adopt AI Europe benefitted less than the US from information-communications technology between the mid-1990s and mid-2000s because most of the innovative tech firms were based in the US and structural factors... 28th July 2023 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Q2 resilience unlikely to last, but inflation to stay high National data released so far suggest that euro-zone GDP rose in Q2, but with activity surveys very weak in July and the full effect of monetary tightening still to be felt, we continue to expect GDP... 28th July 2023 · 10 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Little cause for optimism in dire transaction numbers H1 2023 was the weakest six months for European investment in over 10 years. And the difficult financing conditions and stretched valuations that have sapped investor sentiment are unlikely to relent... 28th July 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Weekly BoE QE losses unlikely to lead to a big fiscal tightening We doubt the Bank of England’s cumulative net loss from its quantitative easing programme will be a big as the £150bn estimated by the Bank earlier this week. That’s because we don’t think interest... 28th July 2023 · 5 mins read
