Emerging Europe Rapid Response Poland Activity Data (Dec.) Poland’s retail sales data for December suggest that consumer spending weakened at the end of last year, although the industrial sector held up better than expected and we think that the economic... 22nd January 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Is the soft landing in jeopardy? This week’s stronger-than-expected news on inflation and weaker-than expected news on activity doesn’t mean that a soft landing for the economy is no longer the most likely outcome. Instead, there’s... 19th January 2024 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Swiss policymakers may cut rates before ECB ECB policymakers have set out their stall ahead of next Thursday’s meeting and will continue to push back against expectations of early rate cuts – notwithstanding mounting evidence that the economy... 19th January 2024 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Retail Sales (Dec. 2023) The 3.2% m/m fall in retail sales volumes in December was far worse than expected (consensus forecast -0.5% m/m, CE -1.0% m/m) and suggests that the Black Friday boost to retail sales proved short... 19th January 2024 · 3 mins read
Global Inflation Watch Will the last mile be the hardest? The easiest wins in the disinflation battle are behind us now that base effects from the previous surge in energy prices have run their course. Indeed, we expect energy effects to lift inflation in... 18th January 2024 · 16 mins read
Europe Economics Update Norges Bank’s turn to hold We think Norges Bank will keep its policy rate unchanged at 4.50% next week but, given the weakness in the krone and tight labour market, retain a hawkish bias in its guidance. Further ahead, we think... 18th January 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update Drag on economic growth from credit starting to fade The Bank of England’s Q4 Credit Conditions Survey suggests the worst of the drag on economic growth from higher interest rates is fading. That suggests an economic recovery will begin later this year. 18th January 2024 · 2 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Credit Conditions Survey (Q4 2023) The latest Credit Conditions Survey showed a rise in the availability of mortgage credit in Q4 as financial market interest rates fell, but demand for mortgages slipped as mortgage rates took time to... 18th January 2024 · 3 mins read
ECB Watch ECB to push back against early rate cut bets The ECB is certain to keep interest rates unchanged next week, leaving the deposit rate at 4%, and we expect Christine Lagarde to push back against expectations for rate cuts in the first half of this... 18th January 2024 · 7 mins read
UK Housing Market Rapid Response RICS Residential Market Survey (Dec. 23) Market was picking up even before latest slide in mortgage rates The December RICS Housing Market survey showed sales volumes rising and buyer demand recovering even before the further sizeable drop... 18th January 2024 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Early Q4 data show adjustment to higher rates goes on Early prime office yield data for Q4 suggest that the property correction deepened at the end of 2023. The sharp rises in yields occurred despite a more favourable market interest rate environment... 17th January 2024 · 3 mins read
Climate Economics Update Weak demand to keep lid on EU carbon price in 2024 The downward trend in the EU carbon price since early 2023 has been driven by lower demand for pollution permits on the back of industrial weakness and growth in cleaner energy sources. With energy... 17th January 2024 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Consumer Prices (Dec. 2023) The unexpected rise in CPI inflation from 3.9% in November to 4.0% in December (consensus and CE forecast 3.8%) is disappointing. But we still expect favourable base effects and a fall in utility... 17th January 2024 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Rental slowdown set to continue in 2024 The resilience of euro-zone rental growth last year surprised us. But our analysis indicates that better-than-expected economic activity explained much of that strength and as recession looms in 2024... 16th January 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Labour Market (Nov./Dec. 2023) Another big drop in wage growth in November supports our view that domestic inflationary pressures are fading fairly fast. But the ongoing tightness of the labour market will probably mean that the... 16th January 2024 · 3 mins read
Event Global Drop-In: ECB, BoE, Fed meetings – Reading the tea leaves for rate cut hints 1706799600 We don’t expect the Federal Reserve, European Central Bank or Bank of England to cut rates in their first meetings of 2024, but they may drop hints about when monetary easing could start.
