UK Housing Market Rapid Response Halifax House Prices (July 2023) With mortgage rates rising to around 6% in July, it was no surprise that the slide in the Halifax house price index continued. Although there might be a modest fall in mortgage rates in the near term... 7th August 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Minor risk to inflation outlook from extreme weather Extreme weather phenomena in Europe as well as worldwide, including El Niño, could push up food and energy prices. But we think that these only pose a very small upside risk to our inflation forecasts... 4th August 2023 · 4 mins read
Commodities Weekly Tightening oil market; Myanmar’s tin mining ban It’s been a mixed week for commodity prices. Industrial metals price generally struggled as activity surveys for China paint a grim picture of demand. (See Chart 1.) We suspect prices will tread water... 4th August 2023 · 4 mins read
UK Housing Market Outlook Renewed falls in activity and house prices imminent Our forecast that the Bank of England won’t start cutting interest rates until the second half of 2024 means mortgage rates are likely to stay between 5.5% and 6.0% for the next 12 months. That will... 4th August 2023 · 20 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Peak does not mean pivot There are two key points to remember as we near the end of the hiking phase of the interest rate cycle and get close to the holding phase. First, a peak in interest rates does not mean that a pivot to... 4th August 2023 · 8 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Euro-zone won’t keep dodging recession There was something for both the bulls and bears in the euro-zone’s Q2 GDP data, but we fall into the latter camp. We have tweaked our GDP forecasts but still think that the economy will slip into a... 4th August 2023 · 7 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (June 2023) Euro-zone retail sales fell in June and we expect them to continue to trend down over the rest of this year as high interest rates take an increasing toll on consumers. 4th August 2023 · 1 min read
Asset Allocation Update French equities may struggle to outperform again The French stock market’s strong showing since 2018 appears to have been built on solid ground. But French equities have stopped outperforming their German peers this year, and the bar is quite high... 3rd August 2023 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily BoE decision another reason to expect lower gilt yields Though investors appear to be increasingly moving towards our view of Bank Rate peaking at 5.50%, we think the levels priced into the market beyond this year – and, accordingly, expectations for gilt... 3rd August 2023 · 3 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Europe Chart Pack (August 2023) This new Chart Pack has been designed to replace our Chart Book in response to client feedback to make our insights more accessible, and with more options to incorporate them into your workflow. Use... 3rd August 2023 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Close to the summit, but rates to stay at the peak for a year Today’s 25 basis point (bps) rise in interest rates from 5.00% to 5.25% may be followed by another hike in September to a peak of 5.50%. But rates appear close to the summit. Even so, the Bank’s new... 3rd August 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response Bank of England Policy Announcement (3rd Aug. 2023) 3rd August 2023 · 3 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone Final PMIs (Jul.) The final euro-zone PMIs confirmed that economic conditions deteriorated in July, with the Composite index consistent with GDP declining slightly. We continue to expect the euro-zone economy to fall... 3rd August 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Addressing key questions from our offices Drop-In We recently held a Drop-in titled “Office Sector Armageddon – Who gets hit hardest?”, which you can view on-demand here. This Update addresses some of the specific European questions we received... 3rd August 2023 · 3 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Swiss CPI (July) Easing core inflation drove headline inflation lower in July, but we don’t expect it to fall much further this year. Despite inflation now sitting within the 0-2% range the SNB equates with price... 3rd August 2023 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Focus Lessons on taming inflation from the 1970s and 1980s One key lesson from the bouts of inflation in the 1970s and 1980s is that core inflation faded only once a loosening in the labour market drove down the job vacancy rate to more normal levels. We... 2nd August 2023 · 11 mins read
