Europe Economics Update Will euro-zone core inflation follow the US down? Core inflation has been falling for around a year in the US and we suspect that it won’t be long before it starts falling in the euro-zone too. However, while core goods inflation in the euro-zone is... 14th August 2023 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Weekly UK unlikely to follow the US closely this time While the evidence of broad-based, rapid disinflation in the US offers some hope for the UK, we suspect the UK will not quickly follow the US. Instead, we think the UK's recent problems of higher... 11th August 2023 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Encouraging CEE inflation data, Turkey’s gold tariff The July inflation data out of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) this week suggests that our forecasts for interest rate cuts to arrive across the region over the rest of this year, and in early 2024... 11th August 2023 · 8 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Italy’s windfall tax, France’s cruise ship The kerfuffle over the Italian government’s planned windfall bank tax is not likely to have any lasting impact on the economy, not least because PM Giorgia Meloni moved swiftly to limit the damage... 11th August 2023 · 7 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK GDP (Jun./Q2 2023) The 0.5% m/m rise in real GDP in June and 0.2% q/q increase in Q2 (CE, BoE, consensus 0.1% q/q) confirmed that a recession has so far been avoided. But with much of the drag from higher interest rates... 11th August 2023 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update Why has the EZ labour market remained so strong? We are unconvinced by Cristine Lagarde’s claim that the recent strength of employment in the euro-zone is due mainly to labour hoarding and shifts in the sectoral composition of employment. Instead... 10th August 2023 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Update Norges Bank to hike and signal one more increase We think Norges Bank will go through with its plan to raise its policy rate by 25bp next week, to 4.0%, and follow that up with a final hike in September to 4.25%. 10th August 2023 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Bucharest office rental surge could have further to run Bucharest offices have been CEE’s best performing so far this year, as rent growth has accelerated rapidly. Although we expect growth to slow sharply from 2024, constrained supply of prime space and... 10th August 2023 · 3 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Norway CPI (July) July’s decline in inflation in Norway was broadly in line with the central bank’s forecast. So Norges Bank is likely to go ahead with its planned 25bp rate hike next week. 10th August 2023 · 2 mins read
UK Housing Market Update RICS Residential Market Survey (Jul.) Given the recent rise in average mortgage rates to their highest level since 2008, we are not surprised by the further deterioration in the RICS headline survey figures. And as we do not expect market... 10th August 2023 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Will the Olympics boost Paris prime retail rents? While Paris rents have been flat for some time, there are signs that the post-pandemic rebound in tourism is starting to boost high street luxury retail. And the upcoming Paris Olympics in 2024 will... 8th August 2023 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Romania Interest Rate Announcement (Aug.) The National Bank of Romania (NBR) left its main policy rate on hold again today, at 7.00%, and we think that it will continue to leave rates unchanged over the rest of this year. In our view... 7th August 2023 · 2 mins read
FX Markets Update We expect SNB intervention to continue to buoy the franc The appreciation in the Swiss franc this year has been largely at odds with moves in many of the factors which typically drive the currency. We believe this is mostly due to intervention from the... 7th August 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update Is the cost of living crisis coming to an end? With CPI inflation soon to fall below average earnings growth, the cost of living crisis appears to be coming to an end. But households won’t suddenly stop feeling the pinch. We suspect the level of... 7th August 2023 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CEE: net migration outflows to slow sharply this decade Economies in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) have experienced large and persistent net migration outflows in recent decades, but the tide has shifted in the past five years or so as outflows have... 7th August 2023 · 6 mins read
Europe Rapid Response German Industrial Production (June) German industrial output fell in June and we expect it to decline further in the rest of this year as high interest rates and weakening demand take a toll on production. 7th August 2023 · 2 mins read
