UK Housing Market Update Flat prices likely to outperform Having risen in value by much less than houses over the past three years, flats were selling at the biggest discount to houses on record at the beginning of the year. But higher mortgage costs are... 24th August 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update An end in sight to the German retail rout? The German retail market has been one of the weakest in Europe since the beginning of 2022 and rental performance so far in 2023 has been well below the euro-zone average. But, with consumer... 24th August 2023 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Downturns to push the euro and sterling down further The weaker-than-expected PMI data from European economies is consistent with our view that the euro and sterling will fall further against the dollar over the next couple of months. 23rd August 2023 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update Rise in gas prices not yet a big inflation risk The increase in the spot and particularly futures prices of European natural gas in the past few weeks suggests that there is an upside risk to our forecast for euro-zone inflation next year. However... 23rd August 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Valuation Monitor Europe Commercial Property Valuation Monitor (Q3 2023) Property yields rose across all sectors and markets in Q2. However, this was somewhat offset by rises in bond yields in most countries. As a result, valuations remain stretched in all sectors, with... 23rd August 2023 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Rise in gas prices could make the BoE’s task harder In an environment in which firms feel able to pass on higher energy costs in their selling prices, the latest leap in wholesale gas prices poses an upside risk to our forecast for core CPI inflation... 23rd August 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Flash PMIs (Aug. 2023) The fall in the activity PMI to below the boom-bust level of 50.0 in August supports our long-held view that the economy will enter a recession. And with weaker activity dampening price pressures, we... 23rd August 2023 · 4 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (August 2023) August’s flash PMIs were worse than expected, particularly in Germany, and are consistent with our view that the euro-zone economy will contract in the third quarter and that underlying price... 23rd August 2023 · 2 mins read
Event Drop-In: The natural gas market in the European winter 1694008800 A mild winter 2022/23 helped Europe dodge a bullet of high gas prices.
Europe Economics Update Boost from tourism is large this year, but will decline While difficult to quantify, we estimate that the growth of tourism added around 0.3% to euro-zone GDP growth in the first half of 2023. However, we think growth will be much slower in the second half... 22nd August 2023 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Emerging Europe Chart Pack (Aug. 23) Our Emerging Europe Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Russia, Turkey and Israel had a strong first half to the year, but growth across Central... 22nd August 2023 · 1 min read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Public Finances (Jul. 2023) July’s public finances figures continued the recent run of better-than-expected news on the fiscal position. But with interest rates still rising and a mild recession on its way, we continue to think... 22nd August 2023 · 3 mins read
Metals Data Response Global Aluminium Production (July) Global aluminium production growth slowed for the seventh consecutive month and dipped into contractionary territory in July on the back of weakness in China. We think production growth will stagnate... 21st August 2023 · 2 mins read
UK Commercial Property Outlook Returns underpinned by income After a brief respite earlier this year, property yields are once again on the rise, driven by a further increase in gilt yields. We don’t expect a repeat of the surge seen last year, but we also... 21st August 2023 · 23 mins read
Energy Update Volatility a reminder scars remain in natural gas markets Price volatility in the wake of news of possible strike action at Australian LNG export terminals serves as a reminder that natural gas markets are still carrying the scars of Russia’s invasion of... 21st August 2023 · 2 mins read
