Europe Economics Weekly ECB policymakers view patience as a virtue ECB policymakers have continued to push back against the prospect of rate cuts this spring. But they won't feel bound by that guidance if their assessment of the inflation outlook changes. So we still... 9th February 2024 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus CEE: rapid labour cost growth eroding competitiveness The surge in labour costs across Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) in recent years has led to a sharp loss of competitiveness and raised concern about the impact on the region. We remain relatively... 9th February 2024 · 19 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Norway CPI (Jan. 2024) January’s continued fall in core inflation in Norway, and renewed fall in the headline rate, support our view that price pressures will ease more quickly this year than Norges Bank is forecasting. We... 9th February 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Czech Interest Rate Announcement (Feb.) The Czech National Bank accelerated the pace of its monetary easing cycle today with a 50bp interest rate cut, to 6.25%, and the post-meeting communications support our view that an even larger... 8th February 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Europe Chart Pack (Feb. 2024) The euro-zone will remain close to recession in the first half of the year as the effects of higher interest rates continue to weigh on household consumption and investment, and fiscal policy is... 8th February 2024 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Turkey Inflation Report Briefing (Feb.) The communications from new Turkish central bank governor Karahan at today’s Inflation Report briefing will have helped to reassure investors that the change at the helm of the central bank won’t lead... 8th February 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Russia GDP (2023) & Activity Data (Dec.) Russia’s economy expanded by 3.6% over 2023 as a whole, marking a sharp rebound from a contraction of just 1.2% in 2022 (revised from 2.1%). The activity data for December suggest that the economy... 7th February 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Focus How big a threat is debt distress in Europe? Falling interest rates will not prevent a rise in refinancing distress in Europe in the coming years – debt funding gaps will be large and forced selling will increase. However, financing pressures... 7th February 2024 · 20 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Poland Interest Rate Announcement (Feb.) The National Bank of Poland (NBP) left interest rates on hold again today, at 5.75%, and we think that an interest rate cut at the next meeting in March looks finely balanced. Our current assumption... 7th February 2024 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Chart Pack UK Economics Chart Pack (Feb. 2024) The faster-than-expected fall in wage growth in November suggests the unexpected rebound in CPI inflation in December will be fleeting. We still think that by April CPI inflation will have fallen... 7th February 2024 · 1 min read
Europe Rapid Response German Industrial Production (December) The seventh consecutive monthly fall in German industrial output in December confirms that industry remains a significant drag on growth. We expect this to continue throughout 2024. 7th February 2024 · 2 mins read
UK Commercial Property Rapid Response S&P Global/ CIPS Construction PMI (Jan.) The rise in the headline CIPS construction PMI from 46.8 in December to 48.8 in January was driven by improvements in both the housing and commercial readings. (See Chart 1.) While we doubt commercial... 6th February 2024 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Update Lower unemployment rate raises risk of later rate cuts The news this morning that the unemployment rate is lower than previously thought increases the chances that interest rate cuts start a little later and are slower. 5th February 2024 · 2 mins read
UK Housing Market Update The financial benefit of buying over renting is increasing Given the rise in rents and the recent decline in mortgage rates, the financial benefit of buying over renting is increasing. This will boost buyer demand and cause tenant demand to soften this year. 5th February 2024 · 4 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Close to a floor, but investment upturn will be weak Euro-zone investment improved a little in Q4, but that did not prevent it experiencing its worst year in a decade. While we have raised our forecast for through-year growth, we still expect a weak... 5th February 2024 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Turkey Consumer Prices (Jan.) Headline inflation edged up slightly in Turkey to 64.9% y/y in January, and the m/m figure – a 6.7% increase on the back of a large minimum wage hike – looked even worse. The figures highlight the... 5th February 2024 · 2 mins read
