UK Economics Rapid Response UK Retail Sales (Jan. 2024) The 3.4% m/m rebound in retail sales volumes in January will put an end to the retail recession and perhaps even to the wider economy recession in Q1. The strong pick up in sales suggests the worst is... 16th February 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Czech Consumer Prices (Jan.) We’d expected a large fall in Czech inflation in January, but the collapse from 6.9% y/y in December to just 2.3% y/y shows that price pressures are dissipating even more quickly than we’d anticipated... 15th February 2024 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK GDP (Dec. & Q4 2023) The news that the UK slipped into technical recession in 2023, will be a blow for the Prime Minister on a day when he faces the prospect of losing two by-elections. But this recession is as mild as... 15th February 2024 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Russia Consumer Prices (Jan.) The stabilisation in Russian inflation in January, at 7.4% y/y, should provide cover for the central bank to leave its policy rate unchanged at 16.00% at its meeting on Friday, rather than continue... 14th February 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone GDP (2nd est.) & Employment (Q4 2023) Data released this morning confirm that the euro-zone economy stagnated in Q4 and we expect this to continue in the first half of the year. 14th February 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Central & Eastern Europe GDP (Q4 2023) Q4 GDP figures out of Central and Eastern Europe showed that the region ended last year on a weak note, but the outlook for 2024 looks brighter. While soft external demand is likely to remain a drag... 14th February 2024 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Focus Have we reached the end of the housing correction? Housing markets in developed economies have perplexed forecasters since 2019. The boom in prices in 2020-22 was not anticipated, and the fall in prices since has been smaller than expected. In this... 14th February 2024 · 17 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Consumer Prices (Jan. 2024) By staying at 4.0% in January rather than rising as widely expected (BoE 4.1%, CE 4.1%, consensus 4.2%), January’s UK CPI inflation figures are better than expected and do not mimic yesterday’s... 14th February 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Focus What does the election mean for the UK economy? The next general election won’t be as pivotal for the economy or the markets as the elections in 2017 and 2019. Moreover, whoever wins will be constrained by interest rates having risen relative to... 13th February 2024 · 31 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Romania Interest Rate Announcement (Feb.) The National Bank of Romania (NBR) left its policy rate on hold at 7.00% again today and, while interest rate cuts are likely to start around mid-year, we think that monetary easing will be less... 13th February 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update SNB to use FX interventions more sparingly Chairman Thomas Jordan’s recent comments about the franc raise questions over whether the SNB might use FX interventions to loosen monetary conditions. But we think policymakers will use the policy... 13th February 2024 · 4 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Swiss CPI (January) The large decrease in headline inflation in Switzerland in January means the inflation rate looks sure to undershoot the SNB’s Q1 forecast of 1.8%. Along with the fall in core inflation, we think this... 13th February 2024 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Labour Market (Dec. 2023) While wage growth fell further in December, evidence that the labour market may not be loosening much suggests wage growth may not fall as fast as we expect. 13th February 2024 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Stronger supply cuts Madrid office outperformance A robust labour market will support Spanish office occupier demand to a greater extent than elsewhere in the euro-zone in the next few years. As a result, we think prime office rent growth will... 12th February 2024 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Czech euro adoption, Glapinski turns hawkish The Czech government’s debate on adopting the euro took another step forward this week, although we think that the potential benefits of joining the single currency union would be outweighed by the... 9th February 2024 · 9 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Bad news coming, but better times ahead We’d recommend ignoring any reports on the back of next week’s data releases that the UK economy is heading in the wrong direction on inflation and activity. It may only be a few months before... 9th February 2024 · 11 mins read
