Europe Commercial Property Valuation Monitor

Europe Commercial Property Valuation Monitor (Q1 2024)

Property valuations improved in Q4 on the back of further rises in property yields and falls in alternative asset yields. This resulted in many office and retail markets shifting into fair value...

21st February 2024 · 0 mins read

UK Economics Rapid Response

UK Public Finances (Jan.)

January’s public finances figures delivered some much-needed good news for the Chancellor in the lead-up to the Budget on 6th March. But we doubt this will pave the way for a very big pre-election...

21st February 2024 · 3 mins read

UK Economics Focus

Spring Budget 2024 Preview – Electioneering beats prudence

Using most of the fiscal headroom of about £15bn to cut taxes in the Spring Budget on 6th March would show that the Chancellor is putting the election before prudence. Such tax cuts may help lift the...

20th February 2024 · 21 mins read

Event

UK Drop-In: Spring Budget 2024 – Jeremy Hunt goes shopping for votes

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The UK Chancellor may use his 6th March Spring Budget to splash the cash and try to win voter support for the beleaguered Conservative party ahead of an expected electi

Europe Economics Update

Construction weakness to resume

Euro-zone construction output picked up in December, but remained well below last year’s peak. We expect it to drop again in 2024, in part due to a continued dismal performance by the sector in...

20th February 2024 · 3 mins read

Europe Economics Update

Strong negotiated wage growth won’t stop ECB cuts

Data published today show that negotiated wage growth in the euro-zone remained strong at the end of last year. But these data won’t stop the ECB from cutting interest rates in April – as we are...

20th February 2024 · 3 mins read

Capital Daily

How corporate credit might fare with spreads so low

We think that corporate credit spreads will narrow a bit more in the US and Europe. Along with lower “risk-free” rates, this will in our view contribute to pushing yields down this year.

19th February 2024 · 4 mins read

UK Housing Market Chart Pack

UK Housing Market Chart Pack (Feb. 2024)

The decline in mortgage rates since last summer will allow more first-time buyers to enter the market and lead to a further pick up in mortgage lending. With supply still tight, we think that will...

19th February 2024 · 1 min read

Europe Rapid Response

Sweden Consumer Prices (Jan.)

The underlying measure of inflation fell further in January and supports the case for the Riksbank to ease monetary policy soon. We expect the first rate cut in May.

19th February 2024 · 2 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Weekly

Israel’s rating downgrade, Turkey’s external position

The decision by Moody's to deliver Israel's first credit rating downgrade in its history late last week is a warning sign to policymakers that the strength of the public finances should not be taken...

16th February 2024 · 8 mins read

Europe Commercial Property Update

Answering questions from our debt distress Drop-In

This week we held a Drop-In on commercial property distress across the US, UK and Europe. Clients can access a recording here and find related analysis on our dedicated landing page. This Update...

16th February 2024 · 3 mins read

UK Economics Weekly

Soft landing intact as mild recession nearing an end

It’s debatable whether the small falls in GDP should be considered a recession, although the decline in GDP per capita has been larger. Either way, timely indicators suggest the economy may be coming...

16th February 2024 · 6 mins read

Europe Economics Weekly

Don’t expect a strong rebound in Germany

The German government’s reduction in its forecast for GDP growth from 1.3% to 0.2% brings it closer to our long-held view that the economy will not grow at all this year. But there are growing risks...

16th February 2024 · 7 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Russia Interest Rate Announcement (Feb.)

Russia’s central bank (CBR) left its policy rate on hold at 16.00% as expected today and we think that inflation pressures will prevent it from cutting interest rates for most of this year.

16th February 2024 · 2 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Update

Czechia to remain one of the sick men of Europe

The Czech economy has had the weakest performance of any EU country since the pandemic, and we think that growth will disappoint expectations again in 2024. This will keep inflation contained and put...

16th February 2024 · 5 mins read