Europe Rapid Response Norway Consumer Prices (Aug.) Norway’s inflation rate came in broadly in line with the Norges Bank’s expectations in August, suggesting that policymakers will go ahead with their plan to raise rates from 4.0% to 4.25% next week... 11th September 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Russia Consumer Prices (Aug.) The further rise in Russian inflation to 5.2% y/y in August is a sign that the economy is bumping up against capacity constraints and we think it will continue to increase over the coming months. The... 8th September 2023 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Weekly A more promising outlook for productivity While we don’t think the recent upward revisions to GDP and productivity will prevent the UK economy from performing worse than most expect over the next year or so, we think there are genuine reasons... 8th September 2023 · 9 mins read
Global Markets Update We expect a rally in government bonds in the US and Europe Market implied rates suggest that investors expect inflation to normalise in the US and Europe in the next couple of years. While we share that view, we think they are overestimating the level of... 8th September 2023 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Recession risk looms over ECB meeting Christine Lagarde and her colleagues will have some new and gloomy data releases to contemplate when they gather in Frankfurt next week. Indeed, the euro-zone economy looks likely to be slipping into... 8th September 2023 · 7 mins read
UK Economics Update Rise in oil prices not yet a big inflation risk The recent rise in oil prices to $90 per barrel means CPI inflation is likely to rise from 6.8% in July to 7.1% in August, but it won’t prevent inflation falling to the 2% target by the middle of next... 8th September 2023 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Dovish NBP skating on thin ice after bumper rate cut The decision by the National Bank of Poland (NBP) to kick off its easing cycle this week with a much larger-than-expected 75bp interest rate cut has been heavily criticised, and suggests to us that... 8th September 2023 · 6 mins read
Event Drop-In: Unpacking the Fed, ECB and Bank of England September decisions 1695304800 Will the FOMC’s September meeting confirm that the Fed is done with tightening? Will the ECB and Bank of England take rates higher?
UK Housing Market Update Real house prices hit seven-year low According to Halifax, house prices are up by 20% compared to 2019 even after their recent falls. But adjusted for inflation they slipped to a seven-year low in August. High mortgage rates point to a... 7th September 2023 · 2 mins read
UK Housing Market Rapid Response Halifax House Prices (Aug 2023) The steep fall in the Halifax House Price Index in August confirmed that the further leg down in house prices we have been forecasting has materialised. If we are right to think that mortgage rates... 7th September 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response German Industrial Production (July) Aggregate German industrial output fell sharply again in July and the fall was even larger if the construction and energy sectors are excluded. We expect production to drop further in the rest of the... 7th September 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Spain and Italy hit harder by ECB rate hikes The higher share of floating rate mortgages in Italy and Spain means that household interest spending in both countries has risen much further than in Germany and France. Interest spending is also set... 6th September 2023 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Why the slump in values feels different this time The latest real estate data suggest that the current drop in capital values in the euro-zone will be as bad as the post-GFC correction. But market sentiment has been less negative this time... 6th September 2023 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update German fiscal policy to remain looser than pre-Covid The German government is unlikely to announce the kind of big stimulus package that some are calling for. However, fiscal policy will remain much more supportive than it was before the pandemic. 6th September 2023 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Poland Interest Rate Announcement (Sep.) The National Bank of Poland (NBP) kicked off its easing cycle today with a much larger-than-expected 75bp cut to its main policy rate, to 6.00%. We will firm up new interest rate forecasts after... 6th September 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (July 2023) Euro-zone retail sales fell in July and, in our view, will keep declining over the rest of the year as the effects of tighter monetary policy continue to feed through to consumers. 6th September 2023 · 2 mins read
