FX

GBP likely to fall by more against EUR than USD

We expect sterling to weaken by ~4% against the euro and ~1% against the dollar by end-2025. This reflects our view that the Bank of England will loosen monetary policy by more than what investors are...

11th October 2024 · 4 mins read

UK Economics Rapid Response

UK GDP (Aug. 2024)

The 0.2% m/m rise in GDP in August (consensus and Capital Economics 0.2%), which came on the back of the economy failing to grow at all in three of the previous four months, lends support to our view...

11th October 2024 · 3 mins read

ECB Watch

Quarter-point cuts will keep on coming

A 25bp interest rate cut looks nailed on next week, taking the deposit rate down to 3.25%. Christine Lagarde is likely to reiterate that policymakers expect to reduce rates further but avoid...

10th October 2024 · 7 mins read

Emerging Markets Economics Update

China’s policy stimulus and the spillovers to EMs

China’s policy stimulus measures have generated large market moves but it is the fiscal element, which hasn’t been detailed yet, that has the potential to lift the economy. We’re not expecting a huge...

10th October 2024 · 4 mins read

UK Economics Update

Credit conditions still consistent with the economy growing

The Bank of England’s Q3 Credit Conditions Survey suggests house prices will rise further in Q4 and supports our view that a mild slowdown in GDP growth this year is more likely than another recession...

10th October 2024 · 2 mins read

Europe Commercial Property Update

Rental growth to converge in Spain’s top high streets

Prime high street rental growth in Barcelona has outpaced Madrid since late 2022. However, we think rental growth will converge in the coming years as tourism numbers fall back to pre-pandemic levels...

10th October 2024 · 3 mins read

UK Commercial Property Update

Retail ‘flight to quality’ limited to shopping centres

In contrast to offices, there is less evidence of a ‘flight to quality’ in the overall retail sector. Shopping centres are the exception, where the spread between both prime and non-prime yields, and...

10th October 2024 · 4 mins read

Europe Rapid Response

Norway CPI (September 2024)

Core inflation in Norway was again below Norges Bank’s forecast in September, strengthening the case for it to start cutting interest rates this year.

10th October 2024 · 2 mins read

UK Housing Market Update

RICS Residential Market Survey (Sep. 2024)

Surge in supply ahead of Budget may temporarily dampen prices A leap in the number of homes being put up for sale in September, perhaps due to fears of second-homes and rented properties being subject...

10th October 2024 · 3 mins read

Event

Europe Drop-In: What will follow another ECB rate cut?

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Given the amount of signalling by Governing Council officials, it would be surprising if the ECB didn’t cut rates at its October meeting.

Europe Economics Update

Consumption to drive Sweden’s recovery

Sweden’s economy is likely to see a strong rebound next year as consumption will benefit from fiscal stimulus and lower household interest expenditure. We think that the recovery will encourage the...

9th October 2024 · 4 mins read

Commodities Update

Taking stock of the two-speed electric vehicle rollout

While electric vehicle (EV) rollouts in Europe and the US have stalled and are set to remain sluggish over the next few years, the uptake of EVs in China has surged beyond expectations. So, for all...

9th October 2024 · 4 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Israel Interest Rate Announcement (Oct.)

The communications alongside the decision by the Bank of Israel to leave its policy rate on hold again today, at 4.50%, underline that policymakers have grown more concerned about the escalation of...

9th October 2024 · 2 mins read

UK Economics Chart Pack

UK Economics Chart Pack (Oct. 2024)

We think the Chancellor will raise taxes in line with the planned £16bn (0.6% of GDP) a year increase in public spending at the Budget on 30th October. The main influence of this will just be a...

9th October 2024 · 1 min read

Europe Rapid Response

Germany Industrial Production (Aug.)

The big increase in German industrial production in August isn’t much reason to celebrate as it was only enough to offset the previous month’s sharp decline. The big picture remains that industrial...

8th October 2024 · 2 mins read