UK Markets Chart Pack UK Markets Chart Pack (Sep. 2023) We suspect the pound will fall from $1.22 now to $1.20 by the end of this year. That’s not due to lower interest rate expectations in the UK compared to the US or the euro-zone, as we think the UK... 28th September 2023 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Spike in housing starts belies weak construction outlook As we anticipated, housing starts in England spiked to their highest level on record in Q2 as builders began work early to avoid having to conform with the Future Homes Standard. More timely monthly... 28th September 2023 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Recoveries across CEE, but Russia and Turkey to slow Russia and Turkey have outperformed the rest of the region this year amid support from loose policy, but both economies look set for a slowdown in 2024 while recoveries take shape across Central and... 28th September 2023 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Economic Sentiment Indicators (Sep.) The European Commission's Economic Sentiment Indicators for Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) were a mixed bag in September and our regional GDP-weighted measure edged down slightly, but the survey is... 28th September 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response EC Survey (September) The weak outturn for the euro-zone’s EC Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) in September supports our view that the economy will contract in Q3. But the rise in the employment expectations and firms’... 28th September 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Germany State CPI and Spain HICP (Sep.) The big drop in CPI inflation across German states in September all but confirms that German and euro-zone HICP inflation also fell sharply this month. While this mainly reflects base effects related... 28th September 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Russia Activity Data (Aug.) Russia’s industrial production and retail sales data for August suggest that activity remained fairly solid and we think the economy is on track for GDP growth of 2.5% this year. Monetary policy has... 27th September 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Czech Interest Rate Announcement (Sep.) The Czech National bank (CNB) left interest rates on hold again at 7.00% today, but we think that an easing cycle will probably begin at the next meeting in November. 27th September 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Economic Outlook ECB to keep policy tight despite weak economy We expect the euro-zone economy to struggle over the next 18 months, and a mild recession in the coming quarters looks more likely than not. Lower energy prices and improved global supply chain... 27th September 2023 · 31 mins read
Europe Economics Update Lending data point to recession The latest euro-zone money and credit data show that tighter ECB policy is continuing to weigh on households’ and firms’ borrowing, as well as influencing what they do with their savings. The weakness... 27th September 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update MNB entering the second phase of the easing cycle The Hungarian central bank (MNB) delivered another 100bp interest rate cut (to 13.00%) and simplified its monetary policy toolkit at today’s meeting, paving the way for the second phase of the easing... 26th September 2023 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Hungary Interest Rate Announcement (Sep.) The Hungarian central bank’s (MNB’s) decision to cut the top of its interest rate corridor, by 250bp, today is a first step in what is likely to be a shift in the monetary policy framework that will... 26th September 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Softer German office supply won’t stop vacancy rising The weakness in German construction activity has raised questions about whether a slowdown in new office supply could offset the weakness in demand and prevent a rise in vacancy. But we think that on... 26th September 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update Slower money growth shows higher rates are working The sharp slowdown in broad money growth since late last year suggests that higher interest rates are working by reducing households’ and firms’ demand for borrowing, which should lead to softer... 26th September 2023 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Are markets pricing in enough bad news on Europe? Another set of downbeat business surveys out of the euro-zone and an increasingly cautious tone from ECB officials have put the EUR/USD rate under renewed pressure. But more broadly market... 25th September 2023 · 4 mins read
Europe Rapid Response German Ifo Business Climate Indicator (Sep.) The Ifo Business Climate Index (BCI) confirmed that the German economy remained in the doldrums in September. We continue to expect contractions in GDP in both Q3 and Q4 of this year. 25th September 2023 · 2 mins read
