UK Housing Market Update Homeownership increasingly unattainable Buying a first home has become increasingly difficult over the past 30 years. A high income is still essential, but other circumstances such as whether the individual is buying as part of a joint... 2nd October 2023 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update ECB likely to end PEPP reinvestments early We suspect that before the end of the year, the ECB will announce that it will end PEPP reinvestments before the end of 2024. This would allow the ECB to shrink its balance sheet more quickly and... 2nd October 2023 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Manufacturing PMIs (Sep.) The manufacturing PMIs increased across most of Emerging Europe last month, but remained consistent with weak industrial activity in Poland and Czechia. In Russia, the further rise in the prices... 2nd October 2023 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily Assessing the round trip in euro-zone bond markets While concerns about euro-zone public finances put upward pressure on bond yields there, the outlook for inflation will probably remain the focus for investors. In our view, that means bond yields in... 29th September 2023 · 5 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Fair value estimates confirm scope for yield falls Fair value calculations combine valuation analysis with a forward-looking view of rents. As such, these estimates reinforce our existing view that there is scope for declines in euro-zone yields... 29th September 2023 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Central bank meetings, Slovakia election, Q3 Outlook The Hungarian and Czech central banks maintained fairly hawkish communications at their meetings this week, but we still think that interest rates will fall sharply in both countries by mid-2024. That... 29th September 2023 · 9 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Bond market sell-off highlights fiscal risks The increase in euro-zone bond yields earlier this week seems to have been mostly a function of shifting global sentiment rather than a response to news from Europe itself. But it is a reminder that... 29th September 2023 · 8 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Pressure on the pound to persist We think the markets are wrong to expect the Fed to keep interest rates at their peak for almost as long as the Bank of England. If so, then the recent downward pressure on the pound from the decline... 29th September 2023 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Update Italy deficit projections: worry but don’t panic The Italian government’s decision to raise its deficit targets suggests it is trying to get away with as little fiscal tightening as possible. With EU fiscal rules set to come back into force next... 29th September 2023 · 3 mins read
Climate Economics Monthly UK “green jobs”; lessons from COP28 warm-up acts We were hoping that the recent publication of an experimental dataset on the number of “green jobs” in the UK by the Office for National Statistics would be a welcome distraction from the politics of... 29th September 2023 · 6 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone HICP (September) September’s sharp drop in euro-zone inflation was largely due to base effects, but core inflation also came in below expectations. This reinforces our view that the ECB has finished raising interest... 29th September 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Poland Consumer Prices (Sep. Flash Estimate) The sharper-than-expected decline in Polish inflation to 8.2% y/y in September raises the chance of another interest rate cut by the central bank at its meeting next week but, at this point, we think... 29th September 2023 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Money & Credit (Aug. 2023) The drag from higher interest rates on bank lending grew further in August, particularly in the housing market. Although interest rates have probably peaked at 5.25%, this effect will intensify as the... 29th September 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK GDP (Q2 2023 Final) The final Q2 2023 GDP data release shows that the economy was a bit more resilient in the first half of this year than we previously thought. But other indicators suggest this is now fading. We still... 29th September 2023 · 3 mins read
