Emerging Europe Chart Pack Emerging Europe Chart Pack (Oct. 2023) Our Emerging Europe Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Russia and Turkey had a strong first half to the year, but large policy tightening is... 19th October 2023 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Evaluating energy transition risk to European offices Anticipation of legislation requiring minimum standards of energy efficiency is already impacting CRE values as investors price in transition risk and this pressure is likely to ramp up in the coming... 19th October 2023 · 4 mins read
UK Commercial Property Chart Pack UK Commercial Property Chart Pack (Oct. 23) After a brief respite earlier this year, property yields are once again on the rise, driven by a further increase in gilt yields. We don’t expect a repeat of the surge seen last year, but we also... 19th October 2023 · 1 min read
ECB Watch From pause to plateau There is little doubt that the ECB will leave interest rates unchanged next week, with the deposit rate on hold at 4%. Recent activity and inflation data have been weaker than expected, but this won’t... 19th October 2023 · 8 mins read
UK Economics Update Higher r* - bigger fiscal challenge, headwind for real asset prices As our new higher estimate of the real neutral interest rate, or r*, for 2030 appears to be above the assumption priced into the financial markets, we think that in the 2030s 10-year gilt yields will... 19th October 2023 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Update Wage pressures have peaked, but may ease only gradually There is a growing body of evidence that suggests wage pressures are past their peak, but it’s not clear how quickly wage growth will slow. The gradual loosening in the labour market and the... 18th October 2023 · 4 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone HICP Breakdown (Sept.) The breakdown of euro-zone HICP inflation data for September, published today, reveals that there was a significant fall in inflation for tourism-related services as the summer season ended. This... 18th October 2023 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Consumer Prices (Sep. 2023) The failure of CPI inflation to fall in September from August’s rate of 6.7% will be a bit of a disappointment to most. But at 6.7% it is still below the 6.9% rate the Bank of England projected back... 18th October 2023 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update Raising our long-run ECB interest rate forecast We have recently published detailed analysis arguing that equilibrium interest rates in advanced economies are now higher than they were before the pandemic, and that they will continue to rise over... 17th October 2023 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Stable Swiss politics supports the economic outlook Switzerland’s government looks set to remain largely unchanged after the federal elections this Sunday, and we do not expect a significant change in economic policy. But voters’ grievances about the... 17th October 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Labour Market (Aug./Sep. 2023) Cooling labour market conditions appeared to start feeding through into an easing in wage growth in August. That supports our view that interest rates have peaked at 5.25%. But as we suspect wage... 17th October 2023 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Poland's election: opposition on track for victory The exit poll from Poland’s parliamentary election on Sunday suggests that the incumbent PiS will fall short of forming a majority and that the pro-EU opposition will be able to form a coalition... 16th October 2023 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update Rise in Spanish inflation will not worry the ECB Spanish inflation doubled from 1.6% in June to 3.2% in September and is likely to rise to over 4% by the end of the year. However, ECB policymakers won’t be too concerned as the increase is largely... 13th October 2023 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Upside inflation risks dominate, Labour’s investment plans The upside risks to oil and gas prices triggered by the conflict between Hamas and Israel will add to the Bank of England’s concerns about whether it has done enough to reduce inflation to the 2%... 13th October 2023 · 8 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Surge in gas prices not yet a major inflation risk Even if it is sustained, the 30% increase in European natural gas prices over the past week would add only around 0.1%-pts to our euro-zone inflation forecast for the coming year and would not require... 13th October 2023 · 4 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Nordic industrial rents to outpace euro-zone next year Industrial rental growth in the Nordics is set to slow in 2024. But a brighter macroeconomic outlook and tight vacancy will help rent growth to outperform the euro-zone. Further ahead, the current... 13th October 2023 · 3 mins read
