Europe Economics Update Lending data remain consistent with recession The euro-zone money and credit data have been very weak all year and September’s data, released this morning, were more of the same. The activity surveys are now turning downwards too, supporting our... 25th October 2023 · 4 mins read
Europe Rapid Response German Ifo Business Climate Indicator (Oct.) The small rise in the Ifo Business Climate Index (BCI) in October still left the index in contractionary territory, echoing the downbeat message from the Composite PMI released yesterday. This chimes... 25th October 2023 · 2 mins read
Global Inflation Watch Inflation back to target by end-2024 Global headline inflation has fallen sharply from its peak a year ago and, despite a temporary setback due to higher fuel inflation, we expect it to fall a lot further over the coming year. The huge... 24th October 2023 · 16 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Hungary Interest Rate Announcement (Oct.) The Hungarian central bank’s (MNB’s) larger-than-expected 75bp cut to its base rate, from 13.00% to 12.25%, today suggests that policymakers are sticking to aggressive monetary easing. Our working... 24th October 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Weak external sector adds to euro-zone’s woes We expect euro-zone export growth to remain weak in the coming months against a backdrop of slow economic growth in key export markets and a stronger euro. 24th October 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (October 2023) The further decline in the euro-zone Composite PMI in October left it well into contractionary territory and the breakdown provides further evidence that price pressures are easing. The survey will... 24th October 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Flash PMIs (Oct. 2023) The composite activity PMI inched up from 48.5 in September to 48.6 in October after five months of declines. But that still leaves the PMI at a level that, historically, has been consistent with a... 24th October 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Labour Market (Aug. 2023) The labour market appeared not to loosen as much as we thought in August based on the Office for National Statistics’ new experimental data. But this is unlikely to sway the Bank of England ahead of... 24th October 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Chart Pack UK Housing Market Chart Pack (Oct. 2023) Our forecast that the Bank of England won’t start cutting interest rates until the second half of 2024 means mortgage rates are likely to stay between 5% and 6% until mid-2024. While transactions... 23rd October 2023 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Fiscal support coming in Israel, Tusk’s election win There remains significant uncertainty over how the Israel-Hamas war will evolve, but developments this week confirm that fiscal policy will be loosened as policymakers provide support to the military... 20th October 2023 · 9 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB set for a hold, new r* projections Further evidence of economic weakness and easing inflationary pressures in this week's data releases suggest that a "hold" is now a done deal for next week's ECB's meeting. Meanwhile, the tentative... 20th October 2023 · 7 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Optimism on inflation, fiscal challenges for next government Although we still think that the UK’s inflation problem will dissipate slowly rather than suddenly and the situation in the Middle East poses an upside risk to our inflation forecasts, leading... 20th October 2023 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Poland Activity Data (Sep.) Poland’s stronger-than-expected activity data for September suggest that the economy started on its road to recovery in Q3. With inflation and interest rates falling, we expect GDP growth to... 20th October 2023 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Retail Sales (Sep. 2023) The 0.9% m/m fall in retail sales volumes in September meant sales volumes fell 0.8% q/q in Q3 and suggests that after the 18-month-long retail recession came to an end in Q1, the sector may already... 20th October 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Public Finances (Sep. 2023) September's public finances figures continued the recent run of better-than-expected news on the fiscal position, bringing some consolation to the government on a day when it has lost two by-elections... 20th October 2023 · 3 mins read
Event Drop-In: Fed, ECB and BoE Oct/Nov decisions – On hold but then what? 1698937200 Senior economists from across our euro-zone, US and UK services held an online briefing on the October/November meetings of the Fed, ECB and Bank of England and the latest messaging from their poli
