UK Economics Rapid Response Despite large rise in taxes, Budget still boosts economy This Budget is big, both in the way it defines the government’s plans and the money it raises and spends. The key point is that it loosens fiscal policy relative to previous plans and is therefore... 30th October 2024 · 3 mins read
Event CRE Drop-In: The residential outlook – Europe vs the US and the case for outperformance 1731423600 Residential’s growing share of investor portfolios speaks to the buzz around its potential to keep providing outsized returns. But will residential continue to deliver?
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Hungary & Czechia GDP (Q3) The weaker-than-expected Q3 GDP data out of Central Europe, which showed that the Hungarian economy slipped back into recession last quarter, suggests that stagnating demand from the euro-zone is... 30th October 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response France and Spain GDP (Q3 2024) Third quarter GDP data reported so far suggest that the aggregate euro-zone growth rate will be a little higher than we had forecast in Q3, but the big picture is that, the Olympics and Spain aside... 30th October 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update French residential property returns to lag the pack Softer rental prospects, less scope for yields to fall and lower income returns look set to weigh on French residential property returns compared to Germany, the UK and the US in the coming years. 29th October 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Rapid Response Lending to commercial property (Sep. 24) Net lending to property totalled £1.33bn in September, essentially unchanged from the previous month. 29th October 2024 · 1 min read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Money & Lending (Sep. 2024) Although consumer confidence has fallen ahead of the Budget, there is little evidence in September’s money and lending figures that Budget worries are having a big influence on households’ financial... 29th October 2024 · 3 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Sweden GDP (Q3) Preliminary data show that Sweden’s economy contracted by 0.1% q/q in the third quarter, far below the consensus expectation and the Riksbank’s forecasts (0.5% and 0.2% respectively). At face value... 29th October 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update ECB to cut deposit rate to just 1.5% In light of the worsening outlook for economic growth and inflation in the euro-zone, we are making major downward revisions to our ECB interest rate forecast. We now think the Bank will implement... 28th October 2024 · 4 mins read
Bonds Update Will gilts shrug off this week’s Budget? The possibility of looser fiscal policy than previous planned in the upcoming UK Budget on 30th October suggests the risks to our forecast that the 10-year gilt yield will fall to 3.50% by end-2025... 28th October 2024 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Poland’s retail sales shocker, BRICS and the dollar The substantial drop in Polish retail sales in September has been interpreted by some analysts as evidence that the engine of the economy is beginning to fail, but we think that these fears are... 25th October 2024 · 7 mins read
UK Economics Weekly The knowns and unknowns of the new fiscal rule The growing likelihood that the PSNFL measure of debt will form one of the Chancellor's fiscal rules in next Wednesday's Budget theoretically means she could increase borrowing by £73bn (2.3% of GDP)... 25th October 2024 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB’s dovish shift, euro heading for parity? ECB policymakers were out in force at the IMF meetings in Washington this week and many seemed willing to contemplate a 50bp rate cut in December. We now think that is the most likely decision and... 25th October 2024 · 11 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Russia Interest Rate Announcement (Oct.) The decision by the Russian central bank to hike its policy rate by a larger-than-expected 200bp today, to 21.00%, is evidence that – despite President Putin’s efforts at this week’s BRICS summit to... 25th October 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Lending growth picking up only gradually New bank lending has risen recently as the interest rates on loans have begun to edge down, but it is still weak. While it will probably continue to increase gradually in the coming months, the ECB... 25th October 2024 · 2 mins read