Europe Economics Focus High bond yields to push up Italy’s debt ratio to 150% The prospect of a long period of high bond yields and some signs of fiscal slippage by Prime Minister Meloni’s government have worsened the outlook for public finances in Italy. We now think the debt... 1st November 2023 · 19 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Manufacturing PMIs (Oct.) The manufacturing PMIs across Emerging Europe for October suggest that industrial activity in Russia remained resilient last month, while industrial sectors in Turkey and Czechia suffered from weak... 1st November 2023 · 2 mins read
UK Housing Market Rapid Response Nationwide House Prices (Oct. 2023) The large increase in house prices in October was a massive surprise given higher mortgage rates should be severely restricting the number of people able to buy and the amount they can spend. But at... 1st November 2023 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update How would the ECB respond to another energy shock? An energy shock caused by an escalation of the war between Hamas and Israel would have obvious similarities with that which followed Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. But we think that ECB policymakers... 31st October 2023 · 3 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone GDP (Q3) & HICP (October) The euro-zone economy contracted in Q3 and the continued weakness of the surveys at the start of Q4 suggests that the outlook is poor. Meanwhile, inflation fell sharply again in October but the period... 31st October 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Poland Consumer Prices (Oct. Flash Estimate) The drop in Polish inflation to 6.5% y/y in October was larger than expected and should pave the way for another 25bp interest rate cut by the central bank next week (to 5.50%). 31st October 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response France GDP (Q3) The slowdown in French GDP growth from an upwardly-revised +0.6% q/q in Q2 to only 0.1% in Q3 (see Chart 1) was a little better than the consensus and our own forecast (+0.1% and -0.2% q/q) and means... 31st October 2023 · 2 mins read
London Housing Markets Chart Pack London Housing Chart Pack (Q4 2023) London house prices have fallen by less than we anticipated, and stopped falling altogether in Q3. However, the high level of house prices compared to incomes should mean that higher mortgage rates... 30th October 2023 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Investment collapse on course to match GFC decline European investment fell sharply again in Q3 but with interest rates at their peak we think the downturn will soon bottom out. However, our upgraded bond yield forecasts indicate only a limited easing... 30th October 2023 · 3 mins read
Europe Rapid Response EC Survey (October) October’s business and consumer survey from the European Commission added to the evidence that the euro-zone economy is contracting. While the labour market still looks tight, labour shortages are... 30th October 2023 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Economic Sentiment Indicators (Oct.) The European Commission's Economic Sentiment Indicators for Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) were another mixed bag in October, but our regional GDP-weighted measure edged up and is consistent with an... 30th October 2023 · 2 mins read
UK Housing Market Rapid Response BoE Mortgage Lending (Sep.23) The drop in mortgage approvals in September left them a third below their usual level in the years leading up to the pandemic as high mortgage rates put homeowners off moving and priced many first... 30th October 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Money & Credit (Sep. 2023) The further easing in bank lending in September will continue to weigh on activity, particularly in the housing market. This is consistent with our view that a mild recession may already be underway... 30th October 2023 · 4 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Sweden GDP (Q3) Preliminary data released this morning show that the Swedish economy flatlined in Q3 (0.0% q/q) after contracting sharply in the second quarter (-0.8%). (See Chart 1.) This slightly stronger-than... 30th October 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Energy prices still a headwind for Germany European natural gas prices have fallen a long way from their 2022 peaks and the possibility of another energy crisis this winter now looks remote. However, prices are still much higher than they were... 27th October 2023 · 4 mins read
