Europe Rapid Response EC Survey & Germany State CPI (April 2024) The weaker-than-expected EC business and consumer survey for Ap ril is a reminder that the euro-zone economy is still weak. Meanwhile, the survey and inflation figures for Germany and Spain confirm... 29th April 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Economic Sentiment Indicators (Apr.) The European Commission's Economic Sentiment Indicators for Central and Eastern Europe were a mixed bag in April, but our regional GDP-weighted measure of sentiment rose to a fresh two-year high... 29th April 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Ukraine gets a boost, but funding fatigue still a risk The $61bn US aid package for Ukraine approved this week will provide a much needed boost to Ukraine’s efforts on the battlefield, but the delays that the funding has faced over recent months casts a... 26th April 2024 · 10 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Recovery in activity won’t stop ECB rate cuts Survey data released this week suggest that the euro-zone is coming out of recession. But with activity still very weak and wage growth appearing to have eased so far this year, we remain comfortable... 26th April 2024 · 11 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Stock market rally only a small support for consumers Our equity and house price forecasts imply household net wealth will rise significantly over the next three years. Even so, we estimate that household net wealth as a share of disposable incomes will... 26th April 2024 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Russia Interest Rate Announcement (Apr.) The hawkish communications accompanying the decision by the Russian central bank (CBR) to leave its key policy rate on hold today suggests that monetary easing will probably arrive later than we... 26th April 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Norges Bank rate cuts inching closer The continued decline in core inflation will make it difficult for Norges Bank to stick to its current guidance that it will leave interest rates unchanged until Q4. We suspect that the Bank will... 26th April 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Still-weak sentiment consistent with sluggish recovery The latest RICS survey suggested that there was a further improvement in occupier and investment demand at the beginning of 2024. However, the big picture was one of a very weak market, reaffirming... 25th April 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update Looser labour market may reduce foreign-born employment Foreign-born workers have been entirely responsible for the post-pandemic recovery in employment. But a gradual rise in labour market participation and a moderation in net migration may mean the share... 25th April 2024 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Turkey Interest Rate Announcement (Apr.) Turkey’s central bank left its policy rate on hold at 50.00% at today’s meeting, but the statement continued to strike a hawkish tone amid persistent inflation risks in the economy. While we think the... 25th April 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Why are Spanish house prices rising? Spanish house prices have risen 5% over the last two years despite rising interest rates. The relative affordability of houses in Spain is the main reason that the market remains strong, but the... 25th April 2024 · 4 mins read
London Housing Markets Chart Pack London Housing Chart Pack (Q2 2024) House price growth in London remains negative according to the ONS, but timelier measures of house prices and sentiment suggest that activity has picked up and prices are regaining momentum. The... 25th April 2024 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Emerging Europe Chart Pack (Apr. 2024) Our Emerging Europe Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The paring back of expectations for interest rate cuts in advanced economies this month... 25th April 2024 · 1 min read
Europe Rapid Response Germany Ifo Survey (April 2024) The rise in the German Ifo in April, together with the jump in the Composite PMI in the same month, suggests that the German economy may be past the worst. But, unlike the PMI, the Ifo remained in... 24th April 2024 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily European corporate bond yields could fall further We expect corporate bond yields in the UK and euro-zone to fall as rate cuts in those economies push down risk-free rates and strong risk sentiment narrows spreads further. 23rd April 2024 · 4 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Oslo offices to lead the way in Scandinavia Prime office rent growth in Scandinavia is expected to moderate in the coming years as soft demand and rising supply push up vacancy. But having trailed the other Scandinavian cities in 2023, we think... 23rd April 2024 · 3 mins read
