Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Romania Interest Rate Announcement (May)

Romania’s central bank (NBR) left its policy rate on hold at 7.00% today, in contrast to consensus expectations for a cut but in line with our own forecast. With inflation pressures falling more...

13th May 2024 · 2 mins read

UK Housing Market Update

Is renting becoming the preserve of the rich?

High net migration has led to a big jump in demand for rental properties that has pushed up the cost of rent compared to the average salary. But comparing rents to average pay is not as accurate a...

13th May 2024 · 4 mins read

Europe Economics Update

What to expect from the European Parliament election

An increase in support for populist parties in European parliamentary elections in June will have little bearing on economic policy in the near term because the more centrist parties should still win...

13th May 2024 · 6 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Update

Turkey: fiscal tightening an important step forwards

The fiscal tightening steps announced by Turkey’s finance ministry today, which include a freeze on most public sector construction projects, will help to prevent the large budget deficit from...

13th May 2024 · 3 mins read

Asset Allocation Update

Europe’s mega-cap breakfast may remain less than magnificent

The shares of the very biggest, ‘mega-cap’, firms have generally outperformed those of smaller ones by less in Europe than they have in the US on net so far this decade. We expect that to remain the...

10th May 2024 · 5 mins read

UK Economics Weekly

No need to panic about a US-style surge in GDP (yet)

The 0.6% q/q rise in GDP in Q1 was the largest quarterly rise since Q4 2021 and has triggered fears that the UK could be heading for a US-style surge in GDP growth that prevents inflation from...

10th May 2024 · 5 mins read

Europe Economics Weekly

ECB-Fed divergence; new CDU manifesto

The Riksbank joined the club of European central banks that cut rates ahead of the Fed this week. The ECB is almost certain to follow suit in June and we think it would take a very big hawkish shift...

10th May 2024 · 8 mins read

UK Economics Rapid Response

UK GDP (Mar. & Q1 2024)

The 0.6% q/q rise in GDP in Q1 confirmed that the recession ended at the start of this year and suggests the economy has been gathering momentum more quickly than we had anticipated. This raises the...

10th May 2024 · 3 mins read

Capital Daily

Scope for Gilt yields and sterling to fall further

Policymakers at the Bank of England (BoE) are edging closer to easing policy, and we still think they will cut Bank Rate by more than widely anticipated. In turn, we expect this will weigh on Gilt...

9th May 2024 · 4 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Update

Israel: excess savings an upside growth and inflation risk

Private sector savings surged in Israel during the pandemic and jumped again last year amid the war in Gaza. We estimate that those built up due to the war are equivalent to around 3.0% of GDP and...

9th May 2024 · 4 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Poland Interest Rate Announcement (May)

Poland’s central bank (NBP) left its policy rate on hold as expected at 5.75% today and we don’t expect any change for some time. Still, there is now a growing possibility of an interest rate cut...

9th May 2024 · 1 min read

UK Economics Update

BoE may cut rates in June and reduce them to 3.00% next year

While leaving interest rates at 5.25% today as widely expected, the Bank of England gave the impression that it is close to cutting interest rates and also hinted that rates may need to fall further...

9th May 2024 · 4 mins read

UK Economics Rapid Response

Bank of England Policy Announcement (May 2024)

While leaving interest rates at 5.25% today as widely expected, the Bank of England gave the impression that it is close to cutting interest rates and also hinted that rates may need to fall further...

9th May 2024 · 3 mins read

Europe Commercial Property Update

Italian industrial upswing has further to run

The Italian industrial market made a strong start to 2024, with prime rent growth outpacing the rest of the euro-zone and beating our own forecasts. Rental gains are still expected to slow going...

9th May 2024 · 3 mins read

Europe Chart Pack

Europe Chart Pack (May 2024)

The latest data are consistent with our view that the euro-zone will grow only slowly in the coming quarters. With the labour market softening and inflation continuing to fall, the ECB has signalled...

9th May 2024 · 1 min read