UK Commercial Property Update Notes from our residential investment roundtables At our recent roundtable we shared our view that strong rental prospects mean residential property is likely to outperform other commercial property sectors over the next five years. Across the... 17th May 2024 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Russia’s reshuffle & China ties, lithium-ion batteries The political reshuffle in Russia this week, in which Putin replaced the defence minister and gave more responsibility to a number of ministers in charge of the economy, suggests a greater focus on... 17th May 2024 · 7 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Will inflation be below 2% for the first time in 3 years? Next Wednesday’s release of April’s CPI inflation data could prove momentous if we’re right in thinking that inflation fell from 3.2% in March to below the 2.0% target for the first time in three... 17th May 2024 · 9 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly US-China tariffs raise stakes for EU This week’s decision by the US government to hike tariffs on Chinese EVs to 100% may have been largely political and symbolic but it raises the stakes for Europe, which will complete its own... 17th May 2024 · 8 mins read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone services inflation should keep falling There will be some upward pressure on services inflation in the coming months from tourism-related items and the pass-through of higher oil prices. But we think that this will be more than offset by... 17th May 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Focus Inflation may soon be too low Our forecast that CPI inflation will fall from 3.2% in March to below 2.0% in April and below 1.0% later this year would leave inflation much lower than the Bank of England and the consensus forecasts... 16th May 2024 · 28 mins read
Latin America Economics Update How will Mexico’s election affect nearshoring prospects? The policies of the Mexican presidential frontrunner, Claudia Sheinbaum, would provide a more supportive environment for the nearshoring of manufacturing supply chains. But we doubt that she’ll carry... 16th May 2024 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Israel GDP (Q1 2024) The 14.1% q/q annualised rebound in Israeli GDP in Q1 was slightly weaker than expected and left GDP almost 3% below its pre-war level. The latest indicators suggest that activity is likely to recover... 16th May 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Valuation Monitor Europe Commercial Property Valuation Monitor (Q2 2024) Property valuations were little changed in Q1 2024, failing to build upon the considerable improvement in 2023. Property yields increased further, but the smaller rise failed to offset gains in... 16th May 2024 · 0 mins read
Global Economics Update What the latest US tariffs mean for the global economy We held an online Drop-In session today to discuss the Biden administration’s new tariffs on goods from China. This Update answers several of the questions that we received about the direct effects of... 15th May 2024 · 6 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Consensus agree prime office rental growth to slow Forecasts for prime office rental growth have generally proven too pessimistic over the past couple of years, but there is again broad agreement that a slowdown is on the way this year. However, we... 15th May 2024 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Central & Eastern Europe GDP (Q1 2024) The Q1 GDP figures released out of Central and Eastern Europe this morning show that growth strengthened across most of the region at the start of this year, and we expect a further modest pick up... 15th May 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Sweden CPI (April) The small increase in the Riksbank’s target CPIF measure of inflation, which excludes the effect of changes in interest rates, from 2.2% in March to 2.3% in April, was broadly as expected (consensus 2... 15th May 2024 · 2 mins read
Event UK Drop-In: April CPI and the Bank of England’s path to rate cuts 1716366600 We think the Bank of England will decide to start cutting rates at its next meeting, but there’s a series of crucial data releases between now and that policy decision on 20th
Climate Economics Update Battery imports to bear the brunt of new US tariffs The impact of the US tariffs announced today will barely register on the paltry flows of solar panels and electric vehicles that China directly exports to the US. However, the new tariffs could have a... 14th May 2024 · 2 mins read
Event Europe Drop-In: The start of the ECB rate cut cycle? 1717682400 We think the ECB’s June meeting will mark the start of a more aggressive rate cutting cycle than markets are currently pricing.
